A Long-Term View of Canada’s Changing Demographics: Are Higher Immigration Levels an Appropriate Response to Canada’s Aging Population?
This report measures how demographic changes, particularly to immigration levels or fertility rates, might reduce some of the economic and fiscal costs of an aging Canadian population.
- Five long-term population scenarios, each with different assumptions about immigration or fertility rates, explore the assumptions’ impact on the size and age structure of the population through to 2100.
- Net migration will be the key driver of any future population growth.
- The labour market will be affected by the retirement of the baby boomers whose weaker household spending will contribute to a decline in real GDP growth.
- Increasing the population will slow the pace of overall population aging but will not reverse its economic consequences. A larger population will, however, help to cushion the impact.
- The aging population will have a major effect on health care and retirement support programs (such as OAS). The share of government revenues needed to fund health care and OAS under the different scenarios is examined—provincial governments’ budgets will be significantly strained over the next 20 to 30 years.