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Metro Resale Snapshot: October 2015

Sales Level Off

Sales are plateauing in many markets, and 17 of our 28 areas reported a monthly decrease. These include Vancouver and Toronto; however, in their cases it was shortages of homes for sale that were partly responsible for the drop. In Calgary, volumes continue to retreat. (Data for Kitchener were unavailable in September.)

Listings were down between August and September in 17 markets for which data was available—including 9 where the drop was at least 5 per cent. Listings were below year-earlier levels in 18 markets.

Despite falling sales, the sales-to-listings ratio rose between August and September in 14 areas. Balanced conditions prevailed in 18 markets. Victoria, the Fraser Valley, St. Catharines, and Windsor enjoyed sellers’ conditions last month.

Price growth remains healthy around Toronto and in Southern British Columbia. Annual gains above 8 per cent were posted in Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, and the Fraser Valley. Sherbrooke’s big gain is inconsistent with a buyers’ market and likely reflects a changing sales mix.



Short-Term Year-Over-Year MLS Price Change Expectations

+7% Fraser Valley, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, Sherbrooke
5–6.9% Victoria, Vancouver, St. Catharines, Trois-Rivières
3–4.9% Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Kingston, Montréal, Québec City
0–2.9% Edmonton, Sudbury, London, Windsor, Ottawa, Gatineau, Halifax
Falling Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Saguenay, Saint John, Newfoundland

Resale Indicators for September 2015

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Sellers 8,004
–2.6
19.3
10,356
–13.1
–6.2
0.757 0.468–0.746 508,187
–6.2
0.1
Vancouver


Balanced 41,124
–3.8
15.4
56,496
–4.9
–1.7
0.714 0.436–0.716 857,272
–4.3
2.9
Fraser Valley4


Sellers 19,752
–0.5
21.2
25,632
–9.4
–8.5
0.745 0.437–0.698 576,615
0.1
10.8
Calgary


Balanced 22,800
–7.5
–36.3
42,492
3.7
–9.3
0.529 0.472–0.746 448,404
–1.6
–3.6
Edmonton


Balanced 18,528
–4.3
–8.3
37,296
–1.5
25.3
0.481 0.464–0.752 362,774
–0.6
–0.7
Regina


Buyers 3,480
–1.4
–19.2
7,608
3.8
–11.5
0.449 0.522–0.773 304,725
–1.9
–3.5
Saskatoon


Buyers 5,172
0.9
–19.
0
14,028
0.7
4.5
0.365 0.466–0.720 331,231
–2.7
–1.6
Winnipeg


Balanced 12,300
–4.2
0.3
21,384
0.8
1.4
0.580 0.442–0.809 282,542
0.6
3.6
Thunder Bay


Balanced 2,280
3.3
–4.5
3,420
–2.4
–3.7
0.669 0.487–0.720 216,656
–2.6
0.6
Sudbury


Balanced 2,436
0.0
18.7
4,596
–2.3
–7.0
0.539 0.330–0.615 247,131
–0.8
–1.3
Toronto


Balanced 99,420
–3.5
1.2
161,904
–1.3
3.0
0.599 0.466–0.686 627,502
0.0
9.3
Oshawa


Balanced 11,244
–2.5
–2.9
15,048
–4.4
1.4
0.731 0.480–0.740 438,372
–1.4
10.1
Hamilton


Balanced 15,924
0.1
7.5
20,352
–8.1
5.1
0.757 0.414–0.783 448,340
–4.9
8.8
St. Catharines


Sellers 3,228
–1.5
14.5
3,972
–15.3
–19.1
0.790 0.377–0.657 275,164
–8.3
0.0
Kitchener


Buyers 0
–100.0
–100.0
0
–100.0
–100.0
0.000 0.465–0.723 0
–100.0
–100.0
London


Balanced 10,248
1.5
21.8
16,800
0.1
2.0
0.608 0.400–0.608 265,437
0.6
–2.2
Windsor


Sellers 6,144
–4.8
12.0
9,036
–7.7
–4.8
0.677 0.448–0.619 192,983
–7.3
2.3
Kingston


Balanced 3,516
1.4
14.5
8,244
–8.0
–0.9
0.414 0.304–0.598 298,904
2.1
6.5
Ottawa


Balanced 15,456
0.9
9.9
31,932
0.6
6.8
0.475 0.398–0.676 370,808
3.3
2.0
Gatineau


Buyers 3,540
–5.1
5.4
8,376
0.0
–1.4
0.423 0.454–0.707 244,011
–0.7
0.1
Montréal


Balanced 38,172
1.1
3.9
75,732
–2.4
–3.4
0.498 0.438–0.843 348,010
0.1
7.1
Québec City


Buyers 6,456
–0.2
1.9
13,452
6.2
–4.9
0.474 0.532–0.764 274,482
1.6
6.9
Sherbrooke


Buyers 1,536
–10.5
–24.7
3,588
–6.3
1.4
0.428 0.461–0.702 261,457
15.7
26.2
Trois-Rivières


Balanced 924
–14.4
–12.5
1,920
6.7
–13.0
0.494 0.483–0.749 165,516
12.1
9.5
Saguenay


Balanced 1,296
3.8
–3.6
2,508
0.0
–12.6
0.491 0.475–0.721 172,850
–0.6
–9.7
Saint John


Balanced 1,596
–6.3
–4.3
4,092
–6.1
–8.8
0.391 0.365–0.587 149,591
–6.6
–3.7
Halifax


Balanced 5,148
39.3
0.7
9,888
–4.2
–8.
5
0.513 0.453–0.686 291,110
2.8
4.3
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced 4,164
–4.7
–3.9
10,548
–5.6
–12.9
0.396 0.353–0.571 283,732
–0.8
3.9

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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