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Metro Resale Snapshot: January 2015

Widespread Cooling in December

December was a tough month for most markets. Sales fell from November in 24 of the 28 markets listed here and dropped at least 5 per cent in 13. Calgary and Edmonton were hammered—sales fell roughly a quarter on a month-to-month basis.

New listings continue to be soft, with 16 jurisdictions recording a decrease between November and December. Still, December listings did exceed their year-earlier levels in 18 markets.

Falling sales and limited listings changes cut the sales-to-listings ratio in 16 areas between November and December. Balanced markets prevailed in 21 areas and 6 faced buyers' conditions. A listings drop pushed St. Catharines unexpectedly into sellers' conditions.

While prices did increase in 14 markets between November and December, the pace of monthly price change deteriorated in 19 markets. As well, prices remained above their year-earlier levels in 20 jurisdictions, with 11 of these seeing an advance of 4 per cent or more.



Short-Term Year-Over-Year MLS Price Change Expectations

+7% none
5–6.9% Fraser Valley, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton
3–4.9% Victoria, Vancouver, Thunder Bay, Kitchener, London
0–2.9% Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Sudbury, St. Catharines, Windsor, Ottawa, Kingston, Montréal, Québec City, Trois-Rivières, Saint John, Halifax
Falling Gatineau, Sherbrooke, Saguenay, Newfoundland

Resale Indicators for December 2014

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Balanced
6,324
–6.7
4.4
10,824
–9.7
–9.2
0.599
0.467–0.748
501,035
8.1
4.5
Vancouver


Balanced
35,532
–1.8
5.8
59,892
1.2
–5.4
0.600
0.434–0.714
848,648
1.9
4.1
Fraser Valley4


Balanced
16,236
–0.2
13.5
28,872
2.5
10.4
0.560
0.436–0.697
535,743
–0.1
8.0
Calgary


Balanced
26,472
–24.6
–8.3
54,948
4.1
33.7
0.498
0.471–0.748
462,513
–0.6
3.0
Edmonton


Balanced
16,068
–26.4
–12.7
31,116
–0.2
11.3
0.526
0.464–0.754
364,993
–5.3
2.3
Regina


Buyers
3,492
–12.3
–5.5
10,548
26.7
77.2
0.333
0.533–0.776
311,738
1.6
3.6
Saskatoon


Buyers
5,448
–12.2
1.1
12,756
–15.7
4.0
0.439
0.475–0.722
344,578
0.1
3.7
Winnipeg


Balanced
11,052
–11.7
–9.0
20,880
–4.3
9.9
0.534
0.442–0.814
275,581
0.5
–9.1
Thunder Bay


Balanced
2,460
–8.5
25.8
3,852
19.8
59.7
0.598
0.484–0.719
211,096
4.6
5.3
Sudbury


Balanced
2,400
–2.4
11.1
5,040
3.4
23.9
0.487
0.329–0.618
252,419
–0.8
0.6
Toronto


Balanced
91,536
–4.6
4.6
155,520
1.0
4.1
0.590
0.464–0.686
581,085
0.2
7.1
Oshawa


Balanced
10,104
–3.3
3.1
14,496
–1.0
5.2
0.715
0.477–0.735
396,693
–0.5
7.5
Hamilton


Balanced
14,340
–7.7
3.9
18,996
–3.1
10.6
0.757
0.409–0.779

414,940
3.0
4.5

St. Catharines


Sellers
2,940
–3.2
–7.5
4,308
–11.4
–4.3
0.666
0.374–0.651
276,788
–2.0
1.3
Kitchener


Balanced
6,648
–3.7
8.0
10,848
–9.0
–5.9
0.604
0.456–0.705
331,440
–0.9
4.6
London


Balanced
9,276
–0.8
12.2
16,728
–7.1
–2.2
0.554
0.398–0.608
261,383
0.4
4.8
Windsor


Balanced
4,836
–20.4
–9.2
9,168
–0.1
–0.1
0.530
0.447–0.613
187,414
–1.6
0.4
Kingston


Balanced
2,820
–14.5
–11.0
7,464
–3.6
0.2
0.375
0.313–0.609
271,404
–1.3
–3.2
Ottawa


Balanced
13,908
–3.9
2.4
32,820
8.7
14.0
0.417
0.399–0.680
363,940
1.2
2.3
Gatineau


Buyers
3,360
–7.6
–0.4
7,788
–9.1
0.0
0.422
0.468–0.713
241,540
0.2
–0.9
Montréal


Balanced
36,564
–1.9
3.5
79,068
1.4
5.0
0.461
0.446–0.853
333,106
–0.7
4.2
Québec City


Buyers
6,864
–2.1
8.7
14,940
8.9
22.8
0.460
0.542–0.771
272,570
0.9
6.1
Sherbrooke


Buyers
1,776
11.3
18.4
3,924
9.0
14.3
0.452
0.467–0.708
208,668
–6.0
–16.2
Trois-Rivières


Balanced
1,032
–14.9
1.2
1,824
–23.2
4.1
0.543
0.486–0.754
162,627
0.0
–7.0
Saguenay


Buyers
1,092
–15.7
–15.0
2,208
–35.9
–20.0
0.454
0.482–0.726
144,387
–16.2
–26.1
Saint John


Balanced
1,944
22.7
33.9
4,404
–1.9
16.1
0.404
0.366–0.589
175,840
–8.0
–7.8
Halifax


Balanced
5,124
1.4
–1.2
10,200
1.2
–6.8
0.491
0.459–0.689
275,253
1.3
0.5
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced
4,212
4.2
5.1
9,756
–9.2
–1.1
0.424
0.355–0.574
267,933
–2.8
–5.0

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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