COVID-19

We expect to see a global recovery as vaccines are made available across advanced and developing economies, which will help bolster business confidence, investment, and trade, especially as borders reopen over the second half of 2021.

As such, our call is that economic activity will pick up on its own without the need for the additional fiscal stimulus of between $70 billion and $100 billion that the federal government announced in its November 30 fiscal update. Overall, we have revised our forecast for real GDP for 2020 from –6.6 per cent in our autumn edition to –5.3 per cent in our latest outlook. Solid gains are forecast for 2021 and 2022.

Solid (but uncertain) recovery projected for 2021

(Canadian real GDP growth, per cent)

f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

The tumultuous economic environment, both in Canada and globally, provides little incentive for new investment. Real business investment will contract by nearly 11 per cent this year, which bodes poorly for any hope of adding to Canada’s productive capacity. Next year, business investment is expected to recover modestly. Investment in structures will be bolstered by a rebound from rock-bottom levels in energy investment. Moreover, the incoming new administration in Washington in January is expected to help settle trade uncertainty and access to the U.S. market, a situation that could help to rekindle investment in Canadian automotive and other manufacturing.

Canadian economy emerging from deep recession

(percentage change*)

f = forecast
* based on market prices, 2012 $
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

While households are expected to tighten their purse strings in the coming months, the tumultuous economic environment, both in Canada and globally, will restrain gains in trade and private investment. Despite the bounce-back through the summer, Canada’s economy will not shrug off the 11.5 per cent contraction suffered in the second quarter any time soon. Solid gains in 2021 and 2022 will not be enough to bring Canada’s economy back to its full potential. Over the next few years, provincial and federal governments will struggle to rein in spending, while rising interest rates will dampen gains in business investment and household spending. This ongoing economic weakness suggests Canada’s unemployment rate will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2025.

Canada key economic indicators

(index, 2019Q4 = 100)

f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

From family obligations to remote work, we’ve surveyed COVID-19’s effects on Canadian employers and workers. But how is the pandemic changing the ebbs, flows, and makeup of the workforce? We asked organizations about how COVID-19 is affecting their turnover, attraction, and retention rates—and the strategies they’ve put in place to manage.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Employees are choosing to stay put

(n = 124; percentage of organizations)

Q: Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the following rates have:

Note: Total may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

COVID-19 is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. Will employers keep their employees working remotely? And will remote workers be on the hook for home office expenses?

Pre-pandemic, nine in 10 organizations had less than 20 per cent of their workforce working remotely. COVID-19 has flipped this on its head. Now, nearly two thirds of organizations have at least 60 per cent of their workforce working remotely.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Home is where the office is

(n = 273; percentage of organizations)

Q: What percentage of your organization’s workforce works remotely?

Note: Total may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Summer is typically prime vacation time. Will it be this year? With nowhere to go and travel restrictions still in effect, employees may be less motivated to use their vacation in the coming months.

This is a top concern among employers that could lead to paying out large amounts of unused vacation, or more employees taking time off at year-end. Organizations are encouraging—or even requiring—their employees to draw down their accrued vacation. Only a small number of organizations are directing when employees must take this time off.

Focus Area—Human Resources

More encouragement than requirement

(n = 296; percentage of organizations)

Q: As a result of COVID-19, how is your organization directing employees to use vacation before year-end (or other deadline)?

Note: Total does not add to 100 as more than one response could be selected.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

As provinces move to ease restrictions, Canadian organizations must consider a return of their employees to physical workplaces. With COVID-19 still active, what will this shift look like, and how prepared are employers for the risks? How will this impact working arrangements in the long term?

Throughout the pandemic, many employees have been working remotely. With easing restrictions, employers must consider whether they will be calling these employees back to the workplace. Only 8 per cent of organizations are fully prepared to reopen workplaces. 40 per cent will require employees currently working remotely to return to the workplace in some capacity. This is most common in transportation and warehousing, where 58 per cent of employers have taken this approach.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Few organizations fully prepared to reopen workplaces

(n = 279; percentage of organizations)

Q: When governments lift restrictions related to your location(s) and/or industry, how prepared is your organization to reopen workplaces?

Note: Total does not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

As COVID-19 distancing measures continue into the year, Canadian organizations are exploring ways to reduce any overhead they can. How is this affecting employee benefits coverage?

68% of organizations have not made—nor are they considering making—any changes to the employee benefits offerings we surveyed. Leading the pack, 46 per cent of utility companies have made or are considering making changes to employee benefits coverage. Retail trade follows at 44 per cent of companies. Almost all organizations in these industries are looking to increase coverage as opposed to reducing it. Across all organizations that have made changes, 46 per cent increased their paid sick leave.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Most organizations staying the course on employee benefits

(n = 333; percentage of organizations)

Q: What changes has your organization made your employee coverage?

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

As COVID-19 distancing—and budgeting—measures continue, many HR leaders are re-evaluating the status of upcoming salary increases and short-term incentive payouts.

The Conference Board of Canada has asked organizations across Canada how they’re managing pay planning for employees at all levels. Here’s what we found.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Few pay cuts so far

(n = 279; percentage of organizations)

Q: Has your organization implemented any of the following actions due to COVID-19?

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

As COVID-19 continues to shift the daily rhythms of Canadian households, millions of Canadians are feeling the pinch to balance competing demands of work and family. What are their employers doing to help?

The Conference Board has asked organizations across Canada how they’re accommodating employees with family responsibilities. Here’s what we found.

Focus Area—Human Resources

New realities mean new accommodations

(n = 185; percentage of organizations)

Q: For employees who cannot work their regular working hours due to caregiving needs, what accommodations has your organization provided?

Note: Total is greater than 100 as respondents could select more than one option.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

The Conference Board has asked HR professionals across Canada about the many ways they’re supporting their public-facing workers. Here’s what we found.

Nine out of 10 organizations offering premiums are adding a fixed amount to employees’ pay. On average, employers are providing $4.43 per hour worked.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Few front-line employees rewarded for service so far

(n = 157; percentage of organizations)

Q: Are you providing pay premiums to non-unionized employees still coming into work?

Note: Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease is changing the nature of work. For many Canadians, it’s also changing how they get paid. As businesses adapt to physical distancing, how are Canada’s workers—especially those who cannot do their jobs remotely—being supported by their organizations?

91% of organizations are navigating our new reality with employees who cannot work remotely.

Focus Area—Human Resources

Locked out of work, but still being paid

(n = 160; percentage of organizations)

Q: How are you compensating employees who cannot access their physical workplace and cannot otherwise perform their work remotely?

Note: Total is greater than 100 as respondents could select more than one option.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.