About the Index of Consumer Confidence

What is the Index of Consumer Confidence?

Why is the Index of Consumer Confidence no longer Seasonally-Adjusted?

How can I order the Index of Consumer Confidence?

What questions are asked for the Index of Consumer Confidence?

What methodology is used for the Index of Consumer Confidence?

Why has the methodology used to construct the index been changed?

Will the new methodology affect historical estimates of consumer confidence?

When is the Index of Consumer Confidence produced?

How is the Index of Consumer Confidence data presented?

Why has the frequency of the survey switched from a monthly to a quarterly basis?

 

 

 

 

 

What is the Index of Consumer Confidence?

The Index of Consumer Confidence, the Conference Board's survey of Canadian households has been ongoing since 1980. It measures consumers' levels of optimism regarding current economic conditions. This is a crucial indicator of near-term sales for companies in the consumer products sector. It is constructed from responses to four attitudinal questions posed to a random sample of Canadian households. Those surveyed are asked to give their views about their households' current and expected financial positions and the short-term employment outlook. They are also asked to assess whether now is a good time or a bad time to make a major purchase such as a house, car or other bit-ticket items.

 

 

 

Why is the Index of Consumer Confidence no longer Seasonally-Adjusted?

Seasonality has been examined and it was determined there is no significant seasonal pattern. As a result, seasonally adjusted data series are no longer available through e-Data.
 

 

 

 

How can I order the Index of Consumer Confidence?

For pricing and information on the Index of Consumer Confidence, please Contact Us.

 

 

 

What questions are asked for the Index of Consumer Confidence?

The Index of Consumer Confidence survey is based on four attitudinal questions. Data is collected on each respondent's age, sex, marital status, and geographic location of residence. The four questions are:

Question 1: Considering everything, would you say that your family is better or worse off financially than six months ago?
Question 2: Again, considering everything, do you think that your family will be better off, the same or worse off financially six months from now?
Question 3: How do you feel the job situation and overall employment will be in this community six months from now?
Question 4: Do you think that right now is a good or bad time for the average person to make a major outlay for items such as a home, car or other major item?
 

 

 

 

What methodology is used for the Index of Consumer Confidence?

The percentage of respondents who stated a positive or negative response is calculated by question for each regional classification, as well as for the national aggregate. Positive responses are beliefs that a consumer’s financial situation improved over the past six months or will improve over the next six months, that more jobs will be available over the near term, or that now is a good time to make a major purchase. Negative responses are defined as a worsening of a household's financial situation over the previous six months, expectations that the financial position or the number of jobs will worsen over the near term, as well as statements indicating that it is a bad time to make a major purchase.

Each Index of Consumer Confidence is then derived by taking for each question:

Percentage positive responses / (percentage positive responses + percentage negative response)

The index is then the average of these values for all four questions, rebased so that 2002 = 100.

 

 

 

 

Why has the methodology used to construct the index been changed?
The old methodology used to construct the Index of Consumer Confidence was derived by adding the percentage of positive responses, subtracting the percentage of negative responses, adding a scalar equal to 400 and indexing the resulting series to a base year of 2002. The scalar was introduced to force the value of the Index to zero if all responses were negative.

Relative to the new index, it is easy to see that the earlier method artificially lowers the variance of the Index, because of the introduction of the scalar. Additionally, the new Index of Consumer Confidence is now constructed using a similar methodology as The Conference Board Inc. in New York, which produces monthly estimates of consumer confidence for the United States.

The new methodology employed by the Conference Board of Canada will allow for easier comparison between changes in confidence levels in Canada and those in the United States.
 

 

 

 

Will the new methodology affect historical estimates of consumer confidence?
Yes. The new methodology has been retroactively applied to both the quarter and monthly series available on E-data.

The quarterly Index of Consumer Confidence begins in 1980, while the monthly series begins in 2002. For quarterly data after 2002, the values of each index are simply the third month in each quarter, rather than the average of all monthly values within the quarter.

 

 

 

When is the Index of Consumer Confidence produced?

The Index of Consumer Confidence report, data and tables are produced on a monthly basis.  The Release Dates for all the data, tables and reports on e-Data are posted online and can be viewed by selecting the Release Dates link found at the top of each page.

 

 

 

How is the Index of Consumer Confidence data presented?

The Index of Consumer Confidence report, is produced four times a year for the Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn seasons.  The data and tables are produced on a Monthly and Quarterly basis.

Report:  Index of Consumer Confidence.

Tables:  Monthly and Quarterly (12 years of data) Historical.

Data Series:  Monthly and Quarterly Historical.

 

 

 

 

Why has the frequency of the survey switched from a quarterly to a monthly basis?

The Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Confidence is now available as monthly report, data and tables.  This change was made based on the need for more timely consumer attitude data for Canada.

What you need to know about this change: