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Metro Resale Snapshot: March 2016

More of the Same—Strength in Lower B.C. Mainland and Southern Ontario, Mixed Elsewhere

The regional variation remains stark. Although sales rose in only 12 of our 28 markets between January and February, volumes soared in Southern B.C., and Southern Ontario markets saw decent jumps. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Maritimes continue to struggle.

Listings rose in 15 markets between January and February. Double-digit jumps occurred in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Hamilton.

Despite the weak sales performance, the sales-to-listings ratio rose between January and February in 16 areas. Market stances are, unsurprisingly, diverse. Sellers’ conditions prevail in eight markets, while another eight are buyers’ markets. Only 12 are “balanced.”

Strong year-over-year price growth persists in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley and is spilling out of the GTA. Quebec markets are generally decent but unspectacular. Pricing is much weaker on the Prairies and in the Maritimes.


Short-Term Year-Over-Year MLS Price Change Expectations

+7%
Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Toronto, Oshawa
5–6.9%
Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Windsor
3–4.9%
St. Catharines, Montréal, Québec
0–2.9%
Regina, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Halifax
Falling
Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Sudbury, Saint John, Newfoundland

Resale Indicators for February 2016

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Sellers’ 9,816
2.0
38.2
11,904
10.2
–3.4
0.859 0.468–0.749 556,810
1.6
10.9
Vancouver


Sellers’ 52,296
0.9
33.0
60,348
4.2
–1.4
0.901 0.435–0.721 1,055,486
–0.6
25.6
Fraser Valley4


Sellers’ 29,652
7.6
75.4
33,600
21.2
22.9
0.923 0.434–0.706 673,526
–1.9
24.6
Calgary


Buyers’ 19,980
–1.1
–10.1
42,168
–6.4
–5.8
0.468 0.473–0.747 450,419
–0.1
2.4
Edmonton


Buyers’ 14,208
–9.8
–13.0
36,648
–3.1
5.1
0.396 0.463–0.751 364,669
5.1
0.0
Regina


Buyers’ 3,396
–3.7
–5.0
8,004
5.7
–2.1
0.411 0.518–0.771 314,724
–0.8
1.8
Saskatoon


Buyers’ 4,596
–6.8
–5.9
14,220
2.4
8.6
0.334 0.460–0.719 333,282
–3.5
–7.9
Winnipeg


Balanced 13,380
3.6
13.5
23,268
–0.6
4.4
0.569 0.443–0.807 283,424
0.2
4.0
Thunder Bay


Balanced 2,244
5.1
10.0
3,324
0.7
3.4
0.669 0.490–0.719 211,122
2.3
0.7
Sudbury


Balanced 1,956
–10.4
–10.9
4,548
–12.7
–6.2
0.430 0.332–0.615 233,814
–0.7
–2.0
Toronto


Sellers’ 111,876
3.2
15.7
157,224
–1.0
2.8
0.714 0.467–0.687 678,845
3.2
14.8
Oshawa


Sellers’ 11,616
9.0
9.6
14,016
–1.4
–4.6
0.852 0.482–0.742 491,346
8.7
16.4
Hamilton


Balanced 14,868
–2.2
–1.6
19,704
11.7
–0.9
0.782 0.416–0.787 451,195
–1.6
4.9
St. Catharines


Sellers’ 3,744
19.5
38.7
4,248
2.6
–3.3
0.924 0.377–0.664 318,746
9.6
11.3
Kitchener


Balanced 8,976
–5.8
3.5
14,016
4.0
–12.5
0.654 0.460–0.711 361,353
0.2
9.6
London


Sellers’ 9,864
2.4
20.9
16,260
–1.3
–7.6
0.630 0.401–0.610 272,116
–1.3
12.1
Windsor


Sellers’ 6,552
–5.2
9.9
8,976
4.9
6.4
0.699 0.445–0.625 207,803
–1.7
7.8
Kingston


Balanced 3,096
–8.2
5.7
7,656
–4.5
6.5
0.395 0.300–0.594 278,499
–0.7
–6.3
Ottawa


Balanced 14,064
–3.9
4.0
30,228
–2.9
–7.2
0.476 0.398–0.674 361,952
–1.4
–0.4
Gatineau


Balanced 3,984
4.1
38.9
8,232
3.6
–2.4
0.476 0.450–0.703 245,186
–1.1
5.8
Montréal


Balanced 38,304
–2.9
10.1
73,836
–3.1
–4.7
0.529 0.436–0.837 337,993
–1.9
1.5
Québec City


Buyers’ 6,468
–5.3
–2.7
13,788
–3.1
–1.4
0.474 0.524–0.762 276,108
5.8
5.1
Sherbrooke


Balanced 1,704
–4.1
11.8
3,600
–1.6
11.1
0.461 0.457–0.699 241,588
11.8
0.7
Trois-Rivières


Balanced 1,296
17.4
11.3
1,980
1.2
4.4
0.628 0.482–0.746 155,268
–1.7
–0.5
Saguenay


Buyers’ 1,080
–3.2
8.4
2,568
0.9
–1.4
0.435 0.472–0.721 178,013
–0.3
–6.7
Saint John


Buyers’ 1,656
0.0
13.1
4,548
–4.8
29.4
0.338 0.364–0.585 152,408
–6.0
–11.0
Halifax


Balanced 4,884
–4.5
3.3
10,332
7.0
4.6
0.474 0.454–0.685 265,068
–1.3
–2.9
Newfoundland
(province)

Buyers’ 4,008
3.7
3.4
12,144
2.3
12.4
0.353 0.353–0.570 265,456
3.7
–5.7

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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