Print Page

Metro Resale Snapshot: June 2013

Sales Gains Widespread in May

Resale markets sprang back to life last month. Sales rose between April and May in 24 of the 28 major markets covered here, with 12 of them posting gains of at least 5 per cent. Sales advanced in Toronto, Montréal, Calgary, and Vancouver (Canada's four largest markets, as measured by sales).

Listings rose in 18 markets between April and May and exceeded their May 2012 volume in 14. This is another sign of a strengthening market, since it signals improved confidence among those with homes to sell.

Despite the sales gains, the sales-to-listings ratio fell in 23 markets between April and May. Given this drop, the outlook remains cautious.

In May, balanced market conditions prevailed in 22 of our 28 markets, up from 19 in April. Buyers' markets prevailed in five areas—four in the province of Québec, plus Regina. A spike in sales made Thunder Bay the only sellers' market.

Existing home price trends remain uneven but seem to be firming. While the average transaction value rose in only 11 markets between April and May, prices rose faster or declined at a slower pace in 17 areas than they did in the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, only three markets—Victoria, London, and Gatineau—posted a drop in prices.


Short-Term Year-Over-Year Price Growth Expectations

+7% Hamilton, Saguenay, Newfoundland
5–6.9% Sudbury, Kingston, Québec
3–4.9% Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Oshawa, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Windsor
0–2.9% Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Thunder Bay, Toronto, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke, Saint John, Halifax
Falling Victoria, London, Trois-Rivières

Resale Indicators for May 2013

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Balanced 5,436
–3.4
–3.4
11,256
–2.8
–18.5
0.485 0.466–0.754 469,343
–8.2
–4.6
Vancouver


Balanced 26,436
8.4
2.1
51,540
–3.5
–15.1
0.503 0.424–0.713 744,712
1.4
4.8
Fraser Valley4


Balanced 11,772
1.2
–14.8
27,192
7.8
–1.8
0.429 0.424–0.693 486,072
1.8
2.0
Calgary


Balanced 29,640
2.2
6.3
43,668
–1.4
–2.0
0.674 0.463–0.742 426,155
1.4
3.3
Edmonton


Balanced 18,048
6.7
1.5
31,356
6.1
–4.4
0.573 0.457–0.755 339,527
–1.7
2.3
Regina


Buyers 3,684
13.3
–5.2
7,320
18.4
16.4
0.529 0.541–0.774 314,421
0.0
3.4
Saskatoon


Balanced 5,160
–2.9
–4.0
10,884
6.6
16.7
0.486 0.476–0.723 332,663
0.9
4.2
Winnipeg


Balanced 11,856
4.0
–2.3
17,424
6.7
8.5
0.670 0.428–0.811 259,523
1.8
1.6
Thunder Bay


Sellers 2,028
11.9
3.0
2,880
7.1
7.6
0.733 0.476–0.710 183,907
–1.9
2.3
Sudbury


Balanced 2,388
3.6
4.2
4,644
1.6
12.2
0.516 0.323–0.619 256,305
2.4
6.1
Toronto


Balanced 86,892
1.4
–5.9
162,444
0.9
0.0
0.545 0.452–0.681 515,294
–0.2
3.4
Oshawa


Balanced 10,104
2.4
–6.8
15,744
5.6
0.7
0.650 0.463–0.724 347,844
–0.9
5.0
Hamilton


Balanced 13,464
3.7
2.0
18,600
3.1
3.5
0.717 0.388–0.762 398,893
4.7
12.1
St. Catharines


Balanced 2,676
9.9
0.0
4,596
1.6
6.7
0.572 0.362–0.643 280,154
11.6
5.3
Kitchener


Balanced 6,972
8.4
13.7
11,556
6.3
–0.6
0.606 0.447–0.704 323,583
–2.4
6.3
London


Balanced 8,580
9.0
4.8
16,968
3.4
9.1
0.502 0.393–0.610 235,634
–2.1
–1.9
Windsor


Balanced 5,472
1.8
8.6
10,212
13.3
6.8
0.562 0.425–0.591 180,619
–0.4
6.1
Kingston


Balanced 3,060
2.4
–12.1
7,356
–5.1
17.7
0.411 0.346–0.647 278,475
–3.1
7.4
Ottawa


Balanced 14,232
4.9
–5.2
30,264
3.5
1.2
0.479 0.396–0.683 364,728
0.1
2.5
Gatineau


Buyers 3,720
9.5
–15.1
8,340
5.3
11.6
0.421 0.492–0.717 235,148
–2.5
–0.2
Montréal


Balanced 37,536
5.4
–12.3
77,760
–0.9
–1.0
0.480 0.476–0.884 319,486
–1.7
2.4
Québec City


Buyers 6,456
2.5
–15.9
12,588
–3.8
–1.2
0.511 0.562–0.772 272,799
–2.2
7.5
Sherbrooke


Balanced 1,764
–4.5
3.5
3,588
–2.9
2.7
0.507 0.480–0.716 217,565
2.3
4.7
Trois-Rivières


Buyers 900
1.4
–27.9
2,004
–1.2
22.8
0.423 0.490–0.755 155,453
–5.3
0.4
Saguenay


Buyers 1,260
19.3
–22.2
2,748
12.3
11.7
0.473 0.500–0.726 216,638
–3.2
13.7
Saint John


Balanced 1,656
6.2
13.1
4,164
–8.9
–3.1
0.387 0.366–0.589 181,318
7.3
6.7
Halifax


Balanced 5,316
13.0
–17.5
10,824
–12.3
4.6
0.491 0.461–0.691 280,068
–1.0
1.8
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced 4,260
–4.6
–34.1
10,032
0.5
10.1
0.429 0.355–0.577 282,550
–1.8
12.1

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

^ top of page

Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

Monthly Newsletter

If you enjoyed this article, get regular updates by signing up to our monthly newsletter.