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Metro Resale Snapshot: November 2012 Resale Housing Activity Flatlines in October
Month-over-month sales increases and decreases were divided evenly among our 28 markets in October. Most changes were moderate. However, October sales were off from a year earlier in 20 areas, with 15 showing a drop of at least 5 per cent. New listings fell from their September levels in 23 markets and trailed their October 2011 volumes in 18 markets. Declines in listings were frequently steep, with 12 areas posting drops of at least 5 per cent on a month-over-month basis and 11 doing so on a year-over-year basis. Widespread market cooling continues. The sales-to-listings ratio fell in 25 markets between September and October. Still, balanced conditions were present in 22 areas. Thunder Bay and St. Catharines enjoyed sellers’ conditions as listings declined sharply in both markets. Buyers’ conditions prevailed in Victoria, Vancouver, Gatineau, and Québec. Despite softening markets, average prices advanced in 16 of our 28 markets during October, and were above their year-earlier levels in 21 areas. Average Year-Over-Year Price Growth for Latest Three Months | +7% |  | Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Saguenay | | 5–6.9% |  | Regina, Toronto, Oshawa, St. Catharines, Québec, Sherbrooke | | 3–4.9% |  | Calgary, Ottawa, Gatineau, Halifax, Newfoundland | | 0–2.9% |  | Edmonton, Sudbury, Kitchener, London, Windsor, Kingston, Montréal | | Falling |  | Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Saskatoon, Trois-Rivières, Saint John |
Resale Indicators for October 2012 | | | | | Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio | | | Market1 | Market
Classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced Market
Range3 | Price ($) | Victoria
m/m %
y/y % | Buyers | 4,260
–26.2
–28.3 | 12,588
–7.0
–7.6 | 0.338 | 0.472–0.757 | 492,227
6.4
–2.0 | Vancouver
| Buyers | 23,832
3.9
–22.8 | 57,864
–9.3
–5.8 | 0.402 | 0.428–0.718 | 726,089
–1.2
–5.7 | Fraser Valley4
| Balanced | 12,276
4.3
–15.8 | 26,904
–5.4
–5.5 | 0.447 | 0.427–0.696 | 481,689
–2.9
–2.8 | Calgary
| Balanced | 27,312
–2.4
22.0 | 39,864
–2.4
–8.4 | 0.681 | 0.460–0.742 | 423,468
3.2
5.5 | Edmonton
| Balanced | 16,716
–9.7
–2.5 | 30,348
–6.3
–1.0 | 0.541 | 0.455–0.757 | 334,182
3.1
2.3 | Regina
| Balanced | 3,612
2.0
–17.1 | 6,216
–5.8
–9.3 | 0.570 | 0.547–0.776 | 305,532
–0.1
7.1 | Saskatoon
| Balanced | 5,460
–3.2
26.7 | 10,428
–5.3
32.1 | 0.516 | 0.483–0.727 | 318,051
1.6
–3.2 | Winnipeg
| Balanced | 11,868
–1.2
–7.3 | 16,932
–1.4
2.9 | 0.685 | 0.424–0.811 | 261,025
1.8
8.1 | Thunder Bay
| Sellers | 2,316
4.3
10.3 | 2,712
–13.1
–5.0 | 0.797 | 0.476–0.704 | 190,462
1.1
11.2 | Sudbury
| Balanced | 2,328
3.7
–15.3 | 4,092
–1.2
–7.6 | 0.555 | 0.319–0.618 | 229,312
–6.2
–3.0 | Toronto
| Balanced | 83,388
1.5
–13.4 | 158,064
–6.5
1.6 | 0.519 | 0.452–0.683 | 499,799
–1.7
6.1 | Oshawa
| Balanced | 10,319
13.6
4.9 | 15,192
1.7
–9.7 | 0.666 | 0.460–0.721 | 335,242
–0.2
5.6 | Hamilton
| Balanced | 12,564
1.8
–9.4 | 18,324
–10.4
–7.8 | 0.688 | 0.383–0.760 | 372,289
0.9
9.9 | St. Catharines
| Sellers | 2,712
–1.7
–5.8 | 3,948
–20.3
–24.4 | 0.684 | 0.359–0.642 | 264,152
4.7
13.1 | Kitchener
| Balanced | 6,216
0.6
–3.5 | 11,292
–2.0
–3.0 | 0.538 | 0.445–0.702 | 307,754
–3.2
–2.3 | London
| Balanced | 8,208
–1.6
0.0 | 16,212
–1.0
–2.5 | 0.514 | 0.391–0.611 | 235,776
–1.4
0.3 | Windsor
| Balanced | 4,752
–1.0
–8.1 | 9,204
–1.0
–4.4 | 0.516 | 0.423–0.590 | 166,300
–5.0
–2.8 | Kingston
| Balanced | 3,360
2.2
–2.1 | 7,140
2.6
8.8 | 0.477 | 0.347–0.650 | 276,448
6.9
3.1 | Ottawa
| Balanced | 14,052
0.8
–3.0 | 28,224
–5.2
7.2 | 0.490 | 0.398–0.684 | 352,838
–1.2
2.1 | Gatineau
| Buyers | 3,384
–3.8
–17.1 | 7,368
–9.4
2.0 | 0.472 | 0.502–0.722 | 246,699
3.5
3.4 | Montréal
| Balanced | 37,680
–0.5
–7.8 | 76,104
–2.5
–1.0 | 0.491 | 0.488–0.893 | 314,680
–2.1
1.0 | Québec City
| Buyers | 6,864
–2.1
–5.9 | 12,444
1.1
–4.1 | 0.558 | 0.574–0.774 | 262,638
2.1
8.5 | Sherbrooke
| Balanced | 1,728
1.4
1.4 | 3,336
–1.1
–3.5 | 0.510 | 0.485–0.722 | 231,181
2.4
5.6 | Trois-Rivières
| Balanced | 960
–5.9
–2.4 | 1,656
–2.1
–9.2 | 0.574 | 0.497–0.761 | 158,938
8.1
2.0 | Saguenay
| Balanced | 1,392
–1.7
0.0 | 2,424
9.2
11.0 | 0.584 | 0.508–0.727 | 188,000
3.7
9.7 | Saint John
| Balanced | 1,512
–4.5
–8.0 | 4,200
–0.3
2.3 | 0.374 | 0.373–0.589
| 170,415
7.9
2.2 | Halifax
| Balanced | 6,120
0.8
3.2 | 10,620
–0.4
1.5 | 0.546 | 0.463–0.694 | 263,586
–1.6
3.7 | Newfoundland
(province)
| Balanced | 4,212
0.3
–10.9 | 9,180
2.5
2.7 | 0.454 | 0.355–0.578 | 277,924
3.7
6.7 |
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
About the Metro Resale Snapshot The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term. Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. ^ top of page
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