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Metro Resale Snapshot: November 2012

Resale Housing Activity Flatlines in October

Month-over-month sales increases and decreases were divided evenly among our 28 markets in October. Most changes were moderate. However, October sales were off from a year earlier in 20 areas, with 15 showing a drop of at least 5 per cent.

New listings fell from their September levels in 23 markets and trailed their October 2011 volumes in 18 markets.

Declines in listings were frequently steep, with 12 areas posting drops of at least 5 per cent on a month-over-month basis and 11 doing so on a year-over-year basis.

Widespread market cooling continues. The sales-to-listings ratio fell in 25 markets between September and October. Still, balanced conditions were present in 22 areas. Thunder Bay and St. Catharines enjoyed sellers’ conditions as listings declined sharply in both markets. Buyers’ conditions prevailed in Victoria, Vancouver, Gatineau, and Québec.

Despite softening markets, average prices advanced in 16 of our 28 markets during October, and were above their year-earlier levels in 21 areas.

Average Year-Over-Year Price Growth for Latest Three Months

+7% Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Saguenay
5–6.9% Regina, Toronto, Oshawa, St. Catharines, Québec, Sherbrooke
3–4.9% Calgary, Ottawa, Gatineau, Halifax, Newfoundland
0–2.9% Edmonton, Sudbury, Kitchener, London, Windsor, Kingston, Montréal
Falling Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Saskatoon, Trois-Rivières, Saint John

Resale Indicators for October 2012

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Buyers 4,260
–26.2
–28.3
12,588
–7.0
–7.6
0.338 0.472–0.757 492,227
6.4
–2.0
Vancouver


Buyers 23,832
3.9
–22.8
57,864
–9.3
–5.8
0.402 0.428–0.718 726,089
–1.2
–5.7
Fraser Valley4


Balanced 12,276
4.3
–15.8
26,904
–5.4
–5.5
0.447 0.427–0.696 481,689
–2.9
–2.8
Calgary


Balanced 27,312
–2.4
22.0
39,864
–2.4
–8.4
0.681 0.460–0.742 423,468
3.2
5.5
Edmonton


Balanced 16,716
–9.7
–2.5
30,348
–6.3
–1.0
0.541 0.455–0.757 334,182
3.1
2.3
Regina


Balanced 3,612
2.0
–17.1
6,216
–5.8
–9.3
0.570 0.547–0.776 305,532
–0.1
7.1
Saskatoon


Balanced 5,460
–3.2
26.7
10,428
–5.3
32.1
0.516 0.483–0.727 318,051
1.6
–3.2
Winnipeg


Balanced 11,868
–1.2
–7.3
16,932
–1.4
2.9
0.685 0.424–0.811 261,025
1.8
8.1
Thunder Bay


Sellers 2,316
4.3
10.3
2,712
–13.1
–5.0
0.797 0.476–0.704 190,462
1.1
11.2
Sudbury


Balanced 2,328
3.7
–15.3
4,092
–1.2
–7.6
0.555 0.319–0.618 229,312
–6.2
–3.0
Toronto


Balanced 83,388
1.5
–13.4
158,064
–6.5
1.6
0.519 0.452–0.683 499,799
–1.7
6.1
Oshawa


Balanced 10,319
13.6
4.9
15,192
1.7
–9.7
0.666 0.460–0.721 335,242
–0.2
5.6
Hamilton


Balanced 12,564
1.8
–9.4
18,324
–10.4
–7.8
0.688 0.383–0.760 372,289
0.9
9.9
St. Catharines


Sellers 2,712
–1.7
–5.8
3,948
–20.3
–24.4
0.684 0.359–0.642 264,152
4.7
13.1
Kitchener


Balanced 6,216
0.6
–3.5
11,292
–2.0
–3.0
0.538 0.445–0.702 307,754
–3.2
–2.3
London


Balanced 8,208
–1.6
0.0
16,212
–1.0
–2.5
0.514 0.391–0.611 235,776
–1.4
0.3
Windsor


Balanced 4,752
–1.0
–8.1
9,204
–1.0
–4.4
0.516 0.423–0.590 166,300
–5.0
–2.8
Kingston


Balanced 3,360
2.2
–2.1
7,140
2.6
8.8
0.477 0.347–0.650 276,448
6.9
3.1
Ottawa


Balanced 14,052
0.8
–3.0
28,224
–5.2
7.2
0.490 0.398–0.684 352,838
–1.2
2.1
Gatineau


Buyers 3,384
–3.8
–17.1
7,368
–9.4
2.0
0.472 0.502–0.722 246,699
3.5
3.4
Montréal


Balanced 37,680
–0.5
–7.8
76,104
–2.5
–1.0
0.491 0.488–0.893 314,680
–2.1
1.0
Québec City


Buyers 6,864
–2.1
–5.9
12,444
1.1
–4.1
0.558 0.574–0.774 262,638
2.1
8.5
Sherbrooke


Balanced 1,728
1.4
1.4
3,336
–1.1
–3.5
0.510 0.485–0.722 231,181
2.4
5.6
Trois-Rivières


Balanced 960
–5.9
–2.4
1,656
–2.1
–9.2
0.574 0.497–0.761 158,938
8.1
2.0
Saguenay


Balanced 1,392
–1.7
0.0
2,424
9.2
11.0
0.584 0.508–0.727 188,000
3.7
9.7
Saint John


Balanced 1,512
–4.5
–8.0
4,200
–0.3
2.3
0.374 0.373–0.589

170,415
7.9
2.2
Halifax


Balanced 6,120
0.8
3.2
10,620
–0.4
1.5
0.546 0.463–0.694 263,586
–1.6
3.7
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced 4,212
0.3
–10.9
9,180
2.5
2.7
0.454 0.355–0.578 277,924
3.7
6.7

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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