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Metro Resale Snapshot: October 2012 Resale Markets Flash Mixed Signals in September
Despite the tightening of mortgage-lending regulations, sales managed to rise between August and September in 19 areas, including 11 where the rise was at least 5 per cent. But September sales were off from their year-earlier levels in 19 areas. New listings rose in 22 markets between August and September and were above their September 2011 volumes in 16 markets. Gains were mostly strong—listings rose at least 5 per cent on a month-over-month basis in 15 cities and year-over-year in 12. Many areas saw listings rise faster than sales, slicing the sales-to-listings ratio in 22 markets between August and September. This indicates widespread market cooling. Nonetheless, balanced conditions prevail in 20 areas, and no market enjoyed sellers' conditions. Vancouver's market may be improving, although it remains in a buyers' state. Toronto remains a balanced market, for now. Market weakening trimmed average prices in 15 of our 28 markets during September, but prices remained above their year-earlier level in 20 areas.
Average Year-Over-Year Price Growth for Latest Three Months | +7% |  | Regina, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Québec
| | 5–6.9% |  | Winnipeg, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, London, Saguenay | | 3–4.9% |  | Kitchener, Windsor, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke, Halifax, Newfoundland | | 0–2.9% |  | Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Kingston, Ottawa, Saint John | | Falling |  | Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley ,Trois-Rivières |
Resale Indicators for September 2012 | | | | | Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio | | | Market1 | Market
Classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced Market
Range3 | Price ($) | Victoria
m/m %
y/y % | Buyers | 5,820
15.2
3.4 | 13,596
13.6
0.3 | 0.444 | 0.473–0.758 | 467,725
–3.7
–3.2 | Vancouver
| Buyers | 22,836
4.2
–25.0 | 63,072
13.4
–0.6 | 0.369 | 0.428–0.718 | 736,816
1.5
–2.4 | Fraser Valley4
| Buyers | 11,736
–3.9
–20.1 | 28,548
7.9
3.8 | 0.394 | 0.427–0.696 | 495,481
4.9
–0.4 | Calgary
| Balanced | 28,056
5.3
25.6 | 40,872
–1.7
–8.3 | 0.659 | 0.460–0.742 | 408,693
–0.5
–0.4 | Edmonton
| Balanced | 18,648
6.3
12.1 | 32,580
5.6
6.7 | 0.571 | 0.455–0.757 | 322,895
–3.3
–2.7 | Regina
| Buyers | 3,552
–2.0
–13.5 | 6,624
1.5
–0.4 | 0.532 | 0.547–0.777 | 306,162
0.3
6.0 | Saskatoon
| Balanced | 5,640
9.3
32.8 | 11,052
12.9
62.1 | 0.499 | 0.483–0.727 | 313,020
–1.1
1.8 | Winnipeg
| Balanced | 12,012
1.9
–2.2 | 17,196
2.0
5.2 | 0.692 | 0.423–0.811 | 256,437
–1.0
6.1 | Thunder Bay
| Balanced | 2,160
20.0
–11.3 | 3,144
9.2
13.9 | 0.657 | 0.476–0.702 | 190,830
2.9
5.9 | Sudbury
| Balanced | 2,280
0.5
–14.4 | 4,140
0.0
–9.4 | 0.558 | 0.319–0.618 | 241,989
1.2
3.8 | Toronto
| Balanced | 82,068
2.5
–14.4 | 169,548
14.5
9.1 | 0.492 | 0.452–0.684 | 509,787
1.6
7.9 | Oshawa
| Balanced | 9,179
–13.2
–12.7 | 14,989
–3.2
–11.9 | 0.615 | 0.460–0.721 | 335,942
–0.7
5.1 | Hamilton
| Balanced | 12,336
–3.7
–10.9 | 20,208
11.2
–0.6 | 0.61 | 0.382–0.760 | 369,130
–0.9
13.7 | St. Catharines
| Balanced | 2,760
28.5
–9.1 | 4,956
13.8
–7.6 | 0.546 | 0.359–0.642 | 251,152
–12.6
1.4 | Kitchener
| Balanced | 6,180
0.4
–1.3 | 11,520
–0.7
–1.2 | 0.533 | 0.445–0.702 | 317,954
–4.8
4.3 | London
| Balanced | 8,352
1.6
–4.5 | 16,380
5.9
–5.7 | 0.511 | 0.391–0.612 | 239,487
3.3
4.1 | Windsor
| Balanced | 4,824
–5.9
–7.8 | 9,300
7.6
–0.6 | 0.528 | 0.423–0.590 | 175,091
4.0
2.9 | Kingston
| Balanced | 3,276
5.4
–2.5 | 6,936
8.0
5.9 | 0.495 | 0.347–0.650 | 259,484
–3.2
0.6 | Ottawa
| Balanced | 13,968
1.9
–6.5 | 29,868
4.6
8.3 | 0.472 | 0.398–0.685 | 356,849
1.0
3.4 | Gatineau
| Buyers | 3,576
0.0
–3.6 | 8,148
6.3
15.9 | 0.444 | 0.503–0.723 | 239,362
–0.2
3.3 | Montréal
| Buyers | 38,160
–2.3
–4.0 | 78,684
3.3
4.6 | 0.489 | 0.489–0.895 | 321,914
0.7
3.5 | Québec City
| Buyers | 7,092
15.2
–3.1 | 12,372
–1.8
5.9 | 0.567 | 0.575–0.775 | 254,487
–3.6
1.7 | Sherbrooke
| Balanced | 1,704
6.0
9.2 | 3,384
7.2
13.7 | 0.489 | 0.485–0.722 | 223,866
3.1
9.4 | Trois-Rivières
| Balanced | 1,020
25.0
4.9 | 1,692
7.6
9.3 | 0.582
| 0.498–0.761 | 147,906
–4.7
–7.1 | Saguenay
| Balanced | 1,428
1.7
16.7 | 2,220
–7.0
9.5 | 0.621 | 0.508–0.728 | 181,571
–1.6
6.2 | Saint John
| Buyers | 1,596
–5.7
2.3 | 4,260
4.4
–1.9 | 0.369 | 0.373–0.589 | 157,978
–7.0
–7.4 | Halifax
| Balanced | 6,072
7.0
–1.7 | 10,644
4.6
–0.1 | 0.589 | 0.463–0.695 | 268,817
–2.5
4.0 | Newfoundland
(province)
| Balanced | 4,248
–1.9
0.6 | 8,964
–3.6
–7.1 | 0.487 | 0.355–0.578 | 266,246
3.2
–1.1 |
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
About the Metro Resale Snapshot The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term. Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. ^ top of page
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