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Metro Resale Snapshot: October 2012

Resale Markets Flash Mixed Signals in September

Despite the tightening of mortgage-lending regulations, sales managed to rise between August and September in 19 areas, including 11 where the rise was at least 5 per cent. But September sales were off from their year-earlier levels in 19 areas.

New listings rose in 22 markets between August and September and were above their September 2011 volumes in 16 markets. Gains were mostly strong—listings rose at least 5 per cent on a month-over-month basis in 15 cities and year-over-year in 12.

Many areas saw listings rise faster than sales, slicing the sales-to-listings ratio in 22 markets between August and September. This indicates widespread market cooling. Nonetheless, balanced conditions prevail in 20 areas, and no market enjoyed sellers' conditions. Vancouver's market may be improving, although it remains in a buyers' state. Toronto remains a balanced market, for now.

Market weakening trimmed average prices in 15 of our 28 markets during September, but prices remained above their year-earlier level in 20 areas.

Average Year-Over-Year Price Growth for Latest Three Months

+7% Regina, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Québec
5–6.9% Winnipeg, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, London, Saguenay
3–4.9% Kitchener, Windsor, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke, Halifax, Newfoundland
0–2.9% Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Kingston, Ottawa, Saint John
Falling Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley ,Trois-Rivières

Resale Indicators for September 2012

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Buyers 5,820
15.2
3.4
13,596
13.6
0.3
0.444 0.473–0.758 467,725
–3.7
–3.2
Vancouver


Buyers 22,836
4.2
–25.0
63,072
13.4
–0.6
0.369 0.428–0.718 736,816
1.5
–2.4
Fraser Valley4


Buyers 11,736
–3.9
–20.1
28,548
7.9
3.8
0.394 0.427–0.696 495,481
4.9
–0.4
Calgary


Balanced 28,056
5.3
25.6
40,872
–1.7
–8.3
0.659 0.460–0.742 408,693
–0.5
–0.4
Edmonton


Balanced 18,648
6.3
12.1
32,580
5.6
6.7
0.571 0.455–0.757 322,895
–3.3
–2.7
Regina


Buyers 3,552
–2.0
–13.5
6,624
1.5
–0.4
0.532 0.547–0.777 306,162
0.3
6.0
Saskatoon


Balanced 5,640
9.3
32.8
11,052
12.9
62.1
0.499 0.483–0.727 313,020
–1.1
1.8
Winnipeg


Balanced 12,012
1.9
–2.2
17,196
2.0
5.2
0.692 0.423–0.811 256,437
–1.0
6.1
Thunder Bay


Balanced 2,160
20.0
–11.3
3,144
9.2
13.9
0.657 0.476–0.702 190,830
2.9
5.9
Sudbury


Balanced 2,280
0.5
–14.4
4,140
0.0
–9.4
0.558 0.319–0.618 241,989
1.2
3.8
Toronto


Balanced 82,068
2.5
–14.4
169,548
14.5
9.1
0.492 0.452–0.684 509,787
1.6
7.9
Oshawa


Balanced 9,179
–13.2
–12.7
14,989
–3.2
–11.9
0.615 0.460–0.721 335,942
–0.7
5.1
Hamilton


Balanced 12,336
–3.7
–10.9
20,208
11.2
–0.6
0.61 0.382–0.760 369,130
–0.9
13.7
St. Catharines


Balanced 2,760
28.5
–9.1
4,956
13.8
–7.6
0.546 0.359–0.642 251,152
–12.6
1.4
Kitchener


Balanced 6,180
0.4
–1.3
11,520
–0.7
–1.2
0.533 0.445–0.702 317,954
–4.8
4.3
London


Balanced 8,352
1.6
–4.5
16,380
5.9
–5.7
0.511 0.391–0.612 239,487
3.3
4.1
Windsor


Balanced 4,824
–5.9
–7.8
9,300
7.6
–0.6
0.528 0.423–0.590 175,091
4.0
2.9
Kingston


Balanced 3,276
5.4
–2.5
6,936
8.0
5.9
0.495 0.347–0.650 259,484
–3.2
0.6
Ottawa


Balanced 13,968
1.9
–6.5
29,868
4.6
8.3
0.472 0.398–0.685 356,849
1.0
3.4
Gatineau


Buyers 3,576
0.0
–3.6
8,148
6.3
15.9
0.444 0.503–0.723 239,362
–0.2
3.3
Montréal


Buyers 38,160
–2.3
–4.0
78,684
3.3
4.6
0.489 0.489–0.895 321,914
0.7
3.5
Québec City


Buyers 7,092
15.2
–3.1
12,372
–1.8
5.9
0.567 0.575–0.775 254,487
–3.6
1.7
Sherbrooke


Balanced 1,704
6.0
9.2
3,384
7.2
13.7
0.489 0.485–0.722 223,866
3.1
9.4
Trois-Rivières


Balanced 1,020
25.0
4.9
1,692
7.6
9.3
0.582

0.498–0.761 147,906
–4.7
–7.1
Saguenay


Balanced 1,428
1.7
16.7
2,220
–7.0
9.5
0.621 0.508–0.728 181,571
–1.6
6.2
Saint John


Buyers 1,596
–5.7
2.3
4,260
4.4
–1.9
0.369 0.373–0.589 157,978
–7.0
–7.4
Halifax


Balanced 6,072
7.0
–1.7
10,644
4.6
–0.1
0.589 0.463–0.695 268,817
–2.5
4.0
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced 4,248
–1.9
0.6
8,964
–3.6
–7.1
0.487 0.355–0.578 266,246
3.2
–1.1

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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