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Metropolitan Housing Starts: January 2013 Expectations Not All Doom and Gloom
- While 15 of 28 markets are showing positive short-term expectations, several of those 15 have posted large drops in recent months.
- With the exception of Abbotsford and Victoria, every market west of Ontario is posting positive short-term expectations.
- Just 10 of 28 CMAs have positive long-term expectations, and only two of those are located west of Ontario.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increases in housing starts in December were St. Catharines–Niagara, Kitchener–Waterloo, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay, and Regina.
- Halifax had the biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts this month.
|  |  | | |  | | | | | - Halifax
- Saint John
- Montréal
- Trois-Rivières
- Ottawa–Gatineau
- St. Catharines–Niagara
| - Regina
- Saskatoon
- Edmonton
- Calgary
- Vancouver
| | | | | | | | - Thunder Bay
- Oshawa
- Hamilton
| - Kitchener–Waterloo
- Windsor
- Abbotsford
| | | | - St. John's
- Moncton
- Québec City
- Saguenay
| - Sherbrooke
- Kingston
- Victoria
| | Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Metropolitan Housing Starts | | Expectations | | | Year Ago | 6-Mon. MA | 3-Mon. MA | Dec. 12 | Short Term* | Long Term** | | St. John’s | 1,368 | 2,043 | 1,907 | 1,962 | – | – | | Halifax | 9,577 | 2,986 | 3,104 | 2,239 | + | – | | Saint John | 298 | 439 | 338 | 347 | + | – | | Moncton | 1,729 | 1,104 | 676 | 616 | – | – | | Québec CMA | 6,960 | 6,578 | 5,740 | 6,437 | – | – | | Montréal | 23,214 | 20,961 | 19,293 | 17,168 | + | – | | Trois-Rivières | 1,392 | 869 | 911 | 575 | + | – | | Saguenay | 795 | 1,123 | 1,483 | 1,231 | – | – | | Sherbrooke | 1,510 | 1,776 | 1,964 | 2,186 | – | – | | Ottawa–Gatineau | 9,025 | 6,359 | 6,095 | 6,100 | + | – | | Kingston | 2,555 | 941 | 715 | 649 | – | – | | Greater Sudbury | 291 | 676 | 780 | 718 | + | + | | Thunder Bay | 176 | 447 | 591 | 410 | – | + | | Oshawa | 1,534 | 1,381 | 1,446 | 1,689 | – | + | | Toronto | 46,999 | 47,678 | 47,417 | 59,420 | + | + | | Hamilton | 3,881 | 2,374 | 2,240 | 2,366 | – | + | | St. Catharines–Niagara | 970 | 1,343 | 1,696 | 2,773 | + | – | | Kitchener–Waterloo | 1,018 | 1,967 | 1,573 | 2,545 | – | + | | London | 2,251 | 2,225 | 2,146 | 1,517 | + | + | | Windsor | 844 | 673 | 614 | 576 | – | + | | Winnipeg | 4,279 | 3,961 | 3,597 | 3,402 | + | + | | Regina | 2,256 | 3,190 | 3,500 | 4,693 | + | – | | Saskatoon | 2,536 | 4,089 | 4,379 | 3,684 | + | – | | Calgary | 13,418 | 11,090 | 11,508 | 12,031 | + | – | | Edmonton | 10,068 | 13,655 | 13,655 | 11,585 | + | – | | Vancouver | 14,142 | 17,278 | 16,137 | 14,099 | + | – | | Victoria | 1,281 | 1,781 | 1,590 | 957 | – | – | | Abbotsford | 429 | 300 | 256 | 176 | – | + | Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
About the Metropolitan Housing Starts The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term. Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. ^ top of page
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