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Metropolitan Housing Starts: January 2013

Expectations Not All Doom and Gloom

  • While 15 of 28 markets are showing positive short-term expectations, several of those 15 have posted large drops in recent months.
  • With the exception of Abbotsford and Victoria, every market west of Ontario is posting positive short-term expectations.
  • Just 10 of 28 CMAs have positive long-term expectations, and only two of those are located west of Ontario.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increases in housing starts in December were St. Catharines–Niagara, Kitchener–Waterloo, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay, and Regina.
  • Halifax had the biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts this month.

Expectations Quadrant

 

Long Term header
Short Term header
  • Sudbury
  • Toronto
  • London
  • Winnipeg
   
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Edmonton
  • Calgary
  • Vancouver
  • Thunder Bay
  • Oshawa
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Windsor
  • Abbotsford
  • St. John's
  • Moncton
  • Québec City
  • Saguenay
  • Sherbrooke
  • Kingston
  • Victoria

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.


Metropolitan Housing Starts

  Expectations
  Year Ago 6-Mon. MA 3-Mon. MA Dec. 12 Short Term* Long Term**
St. John’s 1,368 2,043 1,907 1,962
Halifax 9,577 2,986 3,104 2,239 +
Saint John 298 439 338 347 +
Moncton 1,729 1,104 676 616
Québec CMA 6,960 6,578 5,740 6,437
Montréal 23,214 20,961 19,293 17,168 +
Trois-Rivières 1,392 869 911 575 +
Saguenay 795 1,123 1,483 1,231
Sherbrooke 1,510 1,776 1,964 2,186
Ottawa–Gatineau 9,025 6,359 6,095 6,100 +
Kingston 2,555 941 715 649
Greater Sudbury 291 676 780 718 + +
Thunder Bay 176 447 591 410 +
Oshawa 1,534 1,381 1,446 1,689 +
Toronto 46,999 47,678 47,417 59,420 + +
Hamilton 3,881 2,374 2,240 2,366 +
St. Catharines–Niagara 970 1,343 1,696 2,773 +
Kitchener–Waterloo 1,018 1,967 1,573 2,545 +
London 2,251 2,225 2,146 1,517 + +
Windsor 844 673 614 576 +
Winnipeg 4,279 3,961 3,597 3,402 + +
Regina 2,256 3,190 3,500 4,693 +
Saskatoon 2,536 4,089 4,379 3,684 +
Calgary 13,418 11,090 11,508 12,031 +
Edmonton 10,068 13,655 13,655 11,585 +
Vancouver 14,142 17,278 16,137 14,099 +
Victoria 1,281 1,781 1,590 957
Abbotsford 429 300 256 176 +

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.


About the Metropolitan Housing Starts

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Jane McIntyre Jane McIntyre
Senior Economist

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