Print Page

Metropolitan Housing Starts: October 2012

Negatives Outweigh Positives in Long-Term Expectations

  • Most CMAs are facing lower housing starts in the coming years as markets slow.
  • Only 10 of 28 CMAs have positive long-term expectations, unchanged from last month.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increases in housing starts in September were Kingston, Saint John, Winnipeg, St. Catharines–Niagara, and Moncton.
  • Thunder Bay posted this month's biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts.

Expectations Quadrant

Long Term header
Short Term header
  • Halifax
  • Toronto
  • London
  • Winnipeg
   
  • Saint John
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Vancouver
  • Moncton
  • Oshawa
  • Hamilton
  • Windsor
  • Victoria
  • Abbotsford
  • St. John's
  • Québec City
  • Saguenay
  • Sherbrooke
  • Kingston
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.


Metropolitan Housing Starts

  Expectations
  Year Ago 6-Mon. MA 3-Mon. MA Sep. 12 Short Term* Long Term**
St. John’s 1,900 2,277 2,215 2,149
Halifax 2,994 2,348 2,830 3,128 + +
Saint John 235 388 510 1,098 +
Moncton 1,192 1,422 1,478 2,306 +
Québec CMA 5,688 6,981 7,553 8,003
Montréal 31,741 22,578 22,967 22,440 +
Trois-Rivières 1,839 1,043 852 700 +
Saguenay 640 864 726 778
Sherbrooke 1,562 1,619 1,585 1,809
Ottawa–Gatineau 8,907 10,192 6,739 8,252 +
Kingston 330 897 1,287 1,849
Greater Sudbury 700 489 559 448
Thunder Bay 1,551 301 281 267
Oshawa 1,973 1,556 1,310 1,249 +
Toronto 31,249 47,463 48,595 38,784 + +
Hamilton 2,175 2,856 2,524 2,833 +
St. Catharines–Niagara 457 945 943 1,065 +
Kitchener–Waterloo 4,794 2,297 2,280 4,275 +
London 1,797 2,249 2,365 1,695 + +
Windsor 955 746 738 725 +
Winnipeg 2,133 4,301 4,520 5,581 + +
Regina 1,987 2,840 2,861 3,074 +
Saskatoon 2,751 3,402 3,754 5,151 +
Calgary 8,846 12,799 10,650 11,022 +
Edmonton 8,649 12,673 13,540 13,933 +
Vancouver 17,829 20,254 18,515 17,291 +
Victoria 1,738 1,736 1,985 1,896 +
Abbotsford 371 386 352 335 +

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.


About the Metropolitan Housing Starts

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

^ top of page


Jane McIntyre Jane McIntyre
Senior Economist

Next Release

May 2014

Metro Housing Data

You can purchase Metro Housing data directly from the e-Data site; or if you need this data on a regular basis, you can purchase a database subscription.

Upcoming Webinars

Webinars

Economics Blog

Europe-Russia Connections Force Europe to Walk a Tight Rope

April 01, 2014

Russian Economy Exposed by Takeover in Crimea

March 17, 2014

Why Interdisciplinary Health Care Teams Are Better for Canadians and the Health System

March 13, 2014