Metropolitan Housing Starts: October 2012
Negatives Outweigh Positives in Long-Term Expectations
- Most CMAs are facing lower housing starts in the coming years as markets slow.
- Only 10 of 28 CMAs have positive long-term expectations, unchanged from last month.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increases in housing starts in September were Kingston, Saint John, Winnipeg, St. Catharines–Niagara, and Moncton.
- Thunder Bay posted this month's biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts.
|  |  |
| |
 | | | | | - Saint John
- Montréal
- Trois-Rivières
- Ottawa–Gatineau
- St. Catharines–Niagara
- Kitchener–Waterloo
| - Regina
- Saskatoon
- Calgary
- Edmonton
- Vancouver
| |
| |
|
| | |
| | - Windsor
- Victoria
- Abbotsford
| | | | - St. John's
- Québec City
- Saguenay
- Sherbrooke
| - Kingston
- Sudbury
- Thunder Bay
| |
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| | Expectations |
| | Year Ago | 6-Mon. MA | 3-Mon. MA | Sep. 12 | Short Term* | Long Term** |
| St. John’s | 1,900 | 2,277 | 2,215 | 2,149 | – | – |
| Halifax | 2,994 | 2,348 | 2,830 | 3,128 | + | + |
| Saint John | 235 | 388 | 510 | 1,098 | + | – |
| Moncton | 1,192 | 1,422 | 1,478 | 2,306 | – | + |
| Québec CMA | 5,688 | 6,981 | 7,553 | 8,003 | – | – |
| Montréal | 31,741 | 22,578 | 22,967 | 22,440 | + | – |
| Trois-Rivières | 1,839 | 1,043 | 852 | 700 | + | – |
| Saguenay | 640 | 864 | 726 | 778 | – | – |
| Sherbrooke | 1,562 | 1,619 | 1,585 | 1,809 | – | – |
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 8,907 | 10,192 | 6,739 | 8,252 | + | – |
| Kingston | 330 | 897 | 1,287 | 1,849 | – | – |
| Greater Sudbury | 700 | 489 | 559 | 448 | – | – |
| Thunder Bay | 1,551 | 301 | 281 | 267 | – | – |
| Oshawa | 1,973 | 1,556 | 1,310 | 1,249 | – | + |
| Toronto | 31,249 | 47,463 | 48,595 | 38,784 | + | + |
| Hamilton | 2,175 | 2,856 | 2,524 | 2,833 | – | + |
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 457 | 945 | 943 | 1,065 | + | – |
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 4,794 | 2,297 | 2,280 | 4,275 | + | – |
| London | 1,797 | 2,249 | 2,365 | 1,695 | + | + |
| Windsor | 955 | 746 | 738 | 725 | – | + |
| Winnipeg | 2,133 | 4,301 | 4,520 | 5,581 | + | + |
| Regina | 1,987 | 2,840 | 2,861 | 3,074 | + | – |
| Saskatoon | 2,751 | 3,402 | 3,754 | 5,151 | + | – |
| Calgary | 8,846 | 12,799 | 10,650 | 11,022 | + | – |
| Edmonton | 8,649 | 12,673 | 13,540 | 13,933 | + | – |
| Vancouver | 17,829 | 20,254 | 18,515 | 17,291 | + | – |
| Victoria | 1,738 | 1,736 | 1,985 | 1,896 | – | + |
| Abbotsford | 371 | 386 | 352 | 335 | – | + |
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
About the Metropolitan Housing Starts
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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