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Metropolitan Housing Starts: November 2012 Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
- Overall, half the markets (14 of 28) are posting positive short-term expectations, while short-term expectations are negative in the other half.
- Only 4 of the 28 CMAs have positive expectations for both the short and the long terms.
- The number of CMAs with positive long-term expectations remains unchanged this month, at 10.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increase in housing starts in October were Halifax, Thunder Bay, Greater Sudbury, Saguenay, and Saint John.
- Abbotsford had the biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts in October.
| |  |  | | | |  | | | | | - Saint John
- Montréal
- Sherbrooke
- Ottawa–Gatineau
- St. Catharines–Niagara
| - Regina
- Saskatoon
- Calgary
- Edmonton
- Vancouver
| | | | | | | | | | - Windsor
- Victoria
- Abbotsford
| | | | - St. John’s
- Québec City
- Trois-Rivières
- Saguenay
| - Kingston
- Sudbury
- Thunder Bay
- Kitchener–Waterloo
| | Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Metropolitan Housing Starts | | Expectations | | | Year Ago | 6-Mon. MA | 3-Mon. MA | Oct. 12 | Short Term* | Long Term** | | St. John’s | 1,718 | 2,077 | 2,039 | 1,816 | – | – | | Halifax | 1,113 | 3,008 | 4,231 | 5,017 | + | + | | Saint John | 286 | 440 | 609 | 465 | + | – | | Moncton | 1,031 | 1,339 | 1,325 | 711 | – | + | | Québec CMA | 4,813 | 6,202 | 5,970 | 3,412 | – | – | | Montréal | 23,309 | 21,069 | 21,691 | 20,036 | + | – | | Trois-Rivières | 1,152 | 914 | 733 | 479 | – | – | | Saguenay | 698 | 989 | 1,034 | 1,668 | – | – | | Sherbrooke | 1,801 | 1,492 | 1,539 | 1,403 | + | – | | Ottawa–Gatineau | 9,483 | 9,589 | 6,568 | 6,801 | + | – | | Kingston | 968 | 963 | 1,113 | 893 | – | – | | Greater Sudbury | 356 | 573 | 553 | 920 | – | – | | Thunder Bay | 174 | 345 | 443 | 717 | – | – | | Oshawa | 1,568 | 1,485 | 1,325 | 1,485 | – | + | | Toronto | 39,784 | 43,706 | 44,144 | 38,667 | + | + | | Hamilton | 3,296 | 2,417 | 2,297 | 1,810 | – | + | | St. Catharines–Niagara | 856 | 919 | 959 | 881 | + | – | | Kitchener–Waterloo | 2,926 | 2,112 | 2,120 | 1,126 | – | – | | London | 1,767 | 2,170 | 2,067 | 1,420 | + | + | | Windsor | 668 | 723 | 769 | 750 | – | + | | Winnipeg | 5,865 | 4,284 | 4,701 | 3,928 | + | + | | Regina | 3,434 | 2,744 | 3,147 | 3,472 | + | – | | Saskatoon | 3,340 | 3,723 | 4,506 | 4,694 | + | – | | Calgary | 10,765 | 11,304 | 11,166 | 10,739 | + | – | | Edmonton | 12,264 | 12,841 | 12,255 | 11,478 | + | – | | Vancouver | 17,945 | 20,381 | 18,490 | 18,674 | + | – | | Victoria | 1,828 | 1,729 | 1,941 | 1,423 | – | + | | Abbotsford | 995 | 352 | 317 | 275 | – | + | Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
About the Metropolitan Housing Starts The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term. Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. ^ top of page
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