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Metropolitan Housing Starts: November 2012

Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

  • Overall, half the markets (14 of 28) are posting positive short-term expectations, while short-term expectations are negative in the other half.
  • Only 4 of the 28 CMAs have positive expectations for both the short and the long terms.
  • The number of CMAs with positive long-term expectations remains unchanged this month, at 10.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increase in housing starts in October were Halifax, Thunder Bay, Greater Sudbury, Saguenay, and Saint John.
  • Abbotsford had the biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts in October.

Expectations Quadrant

Long Term header
Short Term header
  • Halifax
  • Toronto
  • London
  • Winnipeg
   
  • Saint John
  • Montréal
  • Sherbrooke
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Vancouver
  • Moncton
  • Oshawa
  • Hamilton
  • Windsor
  • Victoria
  • Abbotsford
  • St. John’s
  • Québec City
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay
  • Kingston
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Kitchener–Waterloo

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.


Metropolitan Housing Starts

  Expectations
  Year Ago 6-Mon. MA 3-Mon. MA Oct. 12 Short Term* Long Term**
St. John’s 1,718 2,077 2,039 1,816
Halifax 1,113 3,008 4,231 5,017 + +
Saint John 286 440 609 465 +
Moncton 1,031 1,339 1,325 711 +
Québec CMA 4,813 6,202 5,970 3,412
Montréal 23,309 21,069 21,691 20,036 +
Trois-Rivières 1,152 914 733 479
Saguenay 698 989 1,034 1,668
Sherbrooke 1,801 1,492 1,539 1,403 +
Ottawa–Gatineau 9,483 9,589 6,568 6,801 +
Kingston 968 963 1,113 893
Greater Sudbury 356 573 553 920
Thunder Bay 174 345 443 717
Oshawa 1,568 1,485 1,325 1,485 +
Toronto 39,784 43,706 44,144 38,667 + +
Hamilton 3,296 2,417 2,297 1,810 +
St. Catharines–Niagara 856 919 959 881 +
Kitchener–Waterloo 2,926 2,112 2,120 1,126
London 1,767 2,170 2,067 1,420 + +
Windsor 668 723 769 750 +
Winnipeg 5,865 4,284 4,701 3,928 + +
Regina 3,434 2,744 3,147 3,472 +
Saskatoon 3,340 3,723 4,506 4,694 +
Calgary 10,765 11,304 11,166 10,739 +
Edmonton 12,264 12,841 12,255 11,478 +
Vancouver 17,945 20,381 18,490 18,674 +
Victoria 1,828 1,729 1,941 1,423 +
Abbotsford 995 352 317 275 +

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.


About the Metropolitan Housing Starts

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Jane McIntyre Jane McIntyre
Senior Economist

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