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International Economic Trends

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The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2016: Are Myths Trumping Economic Fundamentals?

The U.S. economy is suffering—from a number of myths. Despite ramped-up campaign rhetoric, the U.S. economy is actually performing admirably, especially when compared with most eurozone countries or Japan. In the past year, the U.S. economy has been averaging monthly job gains of about 200,000, and the unemployment rate has tumbled below 5 per cent—half of what it was during the 2008-09 recession. Vehicle sales remain at near-record highs, retail sales are on the rise, and even investment spending is showing signs of life. So where is the disconnect? A number of myths regarding the U.S. economy continue to persist—myths that can influence business and economic decisions affecting not only US business, but Canadian organizations as well. Myth #1: The economy has created only low-paying, menial positions since the 2008-09 recession. In fact, the share of higher-paid jobs has accelerated since 2009. Myth #2: There are too many part-time jobs, and not enough full-time jobs. While part-time employment surged during and after the recession, it now accounts for less than one-fifth of total employment, consistent with the past six years. Myth #3: International trade has damaged the U.S. economy. This myth has been a powerful driver in the primary campaigns over the past six months, contributing in part of the successes of both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Recorded Webinar | July 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

World Outlook: Summer 2016

This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world's major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.

Report | 12 pages | July 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View

Brexit-induced financial instability brings more uncertainty but leaves emerging markets’ overall growth outlook for 2016 unchanged for now.

Report | 8 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

U.S. Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2016

This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Report | 22 pages | July 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View—July 2016

Recent moderate optimism on the Euro Area economy has rapidly vanished as a consequence of the unexpected result of the referendum in the UK on June 23.

Report | 6 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—June 2016

The struggle to find more growth.

Report | 7 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—May 2016

Springing forward to a temperate summer: Some rebound in the second quarter is expected, but there is little indication of a turnaround in business investment.

Report | 8 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View—May 2016

The outlook for the Euro Area remains fairly positive but the recovery might be losing steam given that the global outlook is not encouraging. Meanwhile, the new puzzle to solve concerns inflation, which came out lower than expected in April.

Report | 5 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View—May 2016

Sentiment improved somewhat into the second quarter of 2016, but emerging markets’ economic fundamentals are weak and the growth outlook remains fragile.

Report | 8 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2016: Quality over Quantity: How Business Can Generate Sustainable Growth in a slow Global Economy

Our outlook for global economic growth remains modest at 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2.7 percent in 2017. While growth rates between mature and emerging markets have rapidly converged, significant variation between regions remains.

Key Business Issues | 8 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View—April 2016

Relief from declining oil and commodity prices helped global sentiment to improve somewhat toward emerging markets. However, emerging markets continue to suffer from both cyclical and structural weaknesses, making it difficult for them to undertake economic reforms.

Report | 8 pages | April 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View—April 2016

Euro Area growth and inflation remain subdued, triggering more monetary stimulus. Special topic: How have adjustments helped the Eurozone periphery gain competitiveness, and do we see reform fatigue?

Report | 5 pages | April 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—April 2016

Relatively slow growth will continue through the second half of 2016.

Report | 8 pages | April 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

U.S. Outlook: Spring 2016

This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Report | 11 pages | April 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

World Outlook: Spring 2016

This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world's major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.

Report | 11 pages | April 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

Adapting to a Global Economic Slowdown: A Webinar with Oxford Economics

The global economy is in a state of flux, and there is increasing risk of a downturn. The uncertainty in the global economy will affect Canada's prospects, which are not that rosy to begin with. In this turbulent environment, join us for this special 60-minute webinar in which The Conference Board of Canada and Oxford Economics USA combine their unparalleled expertise in national and global economies to help you make more effective business and policy decisions. You should participate in this webinar to: Find out what Oxford Economics projects for the economies of more than 40 countries around the world Get insights into how the global economy is affecting Canada's outlook. Learn more about the Conference Board's Oxford World Outlook forecast service. Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model. The Conference Board of Canada is the leader in macroeconomic analysis of the Canadian economy, as well as our regions, cities and sectors. Gregory Daco, Head of US Macroeconomics for Oxford Economics, will present a global economic outlook with a special emphasis on recent financial market developments. He will explore the underlying causes for subpar growth in emerging markets, analyze the economic slowdown in China, and review growth prospects for the Eurozone and Japan. Pedro Antunes, Deputy Chief Economist of The Conference Board of Canada, will present the Canadian and provincial outlooks. In addition, Pedro will describe trade opportunities in U.S. and fast-growth markets where Canadian organizations can boost their growth prospects.

Recorded Webinar | April 2016 | Pedro Antunes | The Conference Board of Canada

The Conference Board Economics Watch Emerging Markets View

Emerging market’s economic fundamentals remain weak, despite recent abatement of volatility in global financial and commodity markets.

Report | 5 pages | April 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View

The US economy remains on a modest 2+ percent growth track

Recorded Webinar | 8 pages | April 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View -- March 2016

Euro Area recovery continues but at a more moderate pace. Special topic: What will Brexit mean for Britain and Europe?

Report | March 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

U.S. Outlook: Winter 2016

This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Report | 11 pages | March 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

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