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International Economic Trends

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The Brexit Effect: Unpacking the Impact of Uncertainty on the Economy

Low confidence, high uncertainty, and postponed investment decisions are some of the short-term impacts we can expect from the United Kingdom’s stunning decision to leave the European Union.

Report | 14 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Economic Series Report

Monthly economic series report.

Report | 16 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View: July 2016

Despite modest improvement in manufacturing, persistent overcapacity continues to weigh on emerging markets’ growth in 2016.

Report | 7 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View: August 2016

US economic expansion continues to disappoint.

Report | 6 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View: August 2016

This month, we try to read the earliest data on confidence and industrial production to understand what impact Brexit will have on the real economy. Surveys show so far a modest negative impact in 2016 in the Euro Area but a much larger slump in the UK.

Report | 6 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—July 2016

We lowered our short-term GDP forecast again, in part the result of unknown consequences resulting from the Brexit referendum. Business investment is down, and no significant recovery is expected in 2016. Consumption is holding up as wages keep growing, but it is insufficient to offset negative investment trends and weakening exports. Escalating uncertainty regarding growth will likely keep the Fed on pause until December.

Report | 7 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View—July 2016

The Euro Area was on a moderate recovery path before the EU referendum. In reaction to Brexit, investors moved their capital toward less risky assets, bringing to the surface the weakness of the Italian banks and uncertainty around future investment decisions.

Report | 6 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View—July 2016

Emerging markets have shrugged off the Brexit panic, for now, but show little sign of growth acceleration for the rest of the year.

Report | 7 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

A Very British Exit: How the Brexit Impacts the Global and Canadian Economy and Trade

The United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union is one of the most significant geo-political events so far in the 21st century. At a time of uncertainty, hear from two senior Conference Board economists for insights on how this development will impact you and your business. The financial shock to global markets brought on by the Brexit vote is just one of many potential impacts. The world's fifth largest economy has seemingly reversed decades of closer integration, throwing its own domestic economy and one of the world's richest markets into disarray. Just extricating the UK from the EU is expected to take several years, putting the world economy on course for an extended period of weakened performance. Join Kip Beckman and Glen Hodgson as they discuss the implications of the Brexit vote on the global macro-economic picture and the effects on the Canadian economy, business opportunities and geo-political outlook.

Recorded Webinar | July 2016 | Glen Hodgson, Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2016: Are Myths Trumping Economic Fundamentals?

The U.S. economy is suffering—from a number of myths. Despite ramped-up campaign rhetoric, the U.S. economy is actually performing admirably, especially when compared with most eurozone countries or Japan. In the past year, the U.S. economy has been averaging monthly job gains of about 200,000, and the unemployment rate has tumbled below 5 per cent—half of what it was during the 2008-09 recession. Vehicle sales remain at near-record highs, retail sales are on the rise, and even investment spending is showing signs of life. So where is the disconnect? A number of myths regarding the U.S. economy continue to persist—myths that can influence business and economic decisions affecting not only US business, but Canadian organizations as well. Myth #1: The economy has created only low-paying, menial positions since the 2008-09 recession. In fact, the share of higher-paid jobs has accelerated since 2009. Myth #2: There are too many part-time jobs, and not enough full-time jobs. While part-time employment surged during and after the recession, it now accounts for less than one-fifth of total employment, consistent with the past six years. Myth #3: International trade has damaged the U.S. economy. This myth has been a powerful driver in the primary campaigns over the past six months, contributing in part of the successes of both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Recorded Webinar | July 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

World Outlook: Summer 2016

This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world's major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.

Report | 12 pages | July 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

U.S. Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2016

This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Report | 22 pages | July 2016 | Kip Beckman | The Conference Board of Canada

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View

Brexit-induced financial instability brings more uncertainty but leaves emerging markets’ overall growth outlook for 2016 unchanged for now.

Report | 8 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View—July 2016

Recent moderate optimism on the Euro Area economy has rapidly vanished as a consequence of the unexpected result of the referendum in the UK on June 23.

Report | 6 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—June 2016

The struggle to find more growth.

Report | 7 pages | July 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—May 2016

Springing forward to a temperate summer: Some rebound in the second quarter is expected, but there is little indication of a turnaround in business investment.

Report | 8 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View—May 2016

The outlook for the Euro Area remains fairly positive but the recovery might be losing steam given that the global outlook is not encouraging. Meanwhile, the new puzzle to solve concerns inflation, which came out lower than expected in April.

Report | 5 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View—May 2016

Sentiment improved somewhat into the second quarter of 2016, but emerging markets’ economic fundamentals are weak and the growth outlook remains fragile.

Report | 8 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2016: Quality over Quantity: How Business Can Generate Sustainable Growth in a slow Global Economy

Our outlook for global economic growth remains modest at 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2.7 percent in 2017. While growth rates between mature and emerging markets have rapidly converged, significant variation between regions remains.

Key Business Issues | 8 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View—April 2016

Relief from declining oil and commodity prices helped global sentiment to improve somewhat toward emerging markets. However, emerging markets continue to suffer from both cyclical and structural weaknesses, making it difficult for them to undertake economic reforms.

Report | 8 pages | April 2016 | The Conference Board, Inc.

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