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Canadian Economic Trends Service

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Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 25 pages | January 2017 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

People Power: Immigration Levels and The Impact on Canada’s Population and Economic Growth

Canada’s population has grown from 3.5 million in 1867 to more than 35 million as we approach our 150th birthday in 2017. Looking ahead, how many Canadians will there be at the next anniversary, or even in 2100? Population is more than just a fact or a trivia question—demographics are perhaps the most potent force shaping the country’s future. An aging population will have significant implications for the Canadian economy and long-term policy planning. As the baby boomers move into retirement, economic growth will slow—while costs for public services health care and Old Age Security will increase significantly. An increase in immigration levels is one of the options available to governments to potentially offset the negative effect of an aging population on the economy. The federal government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth itself has made increasing annual immigration levels from 300,000 per year to 450,000 over the next five years. In this 60 minute webinar, Matthew Stewart will describe how different levels of immigration could shape Canada’s demographic and economic future, including: Canada’s overall population—could there be 100 million Canadians by 2100? Long-term economic outlook due to demographic change—how much growth does immigration add to the Canadian economy over time? Impact of demographic change on public spending—does a higher population increase or decrease the amount required to fund health and social services? This webinar is based on research conducted by The Conference Board of Canada. The analysis generates long-term population scenarios based on differing assumptions centred on immigration and fertility rates. These assumptions shape the size and age structure of the population, which affects the outlook for the Canadian economy and, in turn, governments’ fiscal resources to pay for public spending programs.

Live Webinar | January 2017 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Trade Trends in 2017: Challenges and Opportunities for Canada’s Trade Relationships

Canada faces a dramatically changed global economic and business context. The Canadian economy is now characterized by weak domestic growth, uncertainty over the direction of the U.S. economy, and moderating but steady growth in emerging markets. Danielle Goldfarb will provide an overview of The Conference Board of Canada’s outlook on the key trends emerging in Canada’s trade. Webinar participants will receive a copy of the Conference Board’s publication: What will Canada’s Trade Look Like in 2020? Canada’s Export and Import Forecast by Main Trading Partners and the opportunity to learn more about the Canadian Interactive Trade Forecast. The Interactive Trade Forecast provides interactive charts which portrays trends in Canadian exports and imports by country and type of traded goods and services.

Recorded Webinar | December 2016 | Danielle Goldfarb | The Conference Board of Canada

Prospects for 2017: The Outlook for the Canadian Economy—Insights from the Chief Economist

Canada's economy is coming to the end of another difficult year, and the outlook for 2017 is clouded by powerful global forces. The election of Donald Trump in the United States and the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom adds uncertainty about the future of global trade—on which much of Canada’s prosperity is based. The domestic economy began to bounce back in the second half of 2016 and there is growing evidence that the adjustment to the commodity shock is abating. Indeed, 2017 is shaping up for a modest improvement over this year’s GDP growth of 1.5 per cent, but there are considerable risks that require close monitoring. A key issue is Canada’s weak business investment performance that must be addressed to support Canada’s medium-term outlook. As we approach 2017, join the Conference Board's new Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, Craig Alexander for his expert interpretation of the latest economic numbers for Canada, the provinces, the United States, and the world—and what they mean for decision-makers.

Recorded Webinar | December 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 180 pages | November 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Note de conjoncture canadienne: Résumé Automne 2016

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 34 pages | November 2016 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 30 pages | October 2016 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Signs of Optimism? The Canadian Economy Entering 2017—Insights from the Chief Economist

Canada's economy has been on a roller-coaster throughout the first six months of 2016. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.6% in the first quarter. Exports were up sharply, but low oil prices continue to take a toll on national wealth. The impact of low oil prices is most apparent in investment expenditures. Business investment in the oil and gas sector fell by $17 billion last year, and with commodity prices expected to remain low, a recovery in 2016 is not in the cards. At a time of uncertainty, join the Conference Board's Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, Glen Hodgson, for his expert interpretation of the latest economic numbers for Canada, its provinces, the United States, and the world.

Recorded Webinar | August 2016 | Glen Hodgson | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 176 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Éte 2016

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 29 pages | August 2016 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Summer 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 26 pages | July 2016 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Choosing Wisely: Responsibly Recycling Revenues from Carbon Pricing

Carbon pricing. The primary objective is, of course, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but that’s only half the story. Carbon pricing can also generate substantial revenue for provincial governments, which can then be recycled back into the economy. However, just how this money is used can have lasting effects on both the economic and environmental objectives of the province and the people living in it. So how can governments ensure that these funds will be used in the best way possible? Join Dr. Chris Ragan, Chair of Canada's Ecofiscal Commission, for this 60-minute webinar in which he will guide you through the Commission's newest report, Choose Wisely: Options and Trade-offs in Recycling Carbon Pricing Revenues, published in April 2016. As priorities differ across provinces, revenue-recycling choices will differ across the country. Dr. Ragan will explore these changes, and discuss how household fairness and business competitiveness challenges can be addressed with good policy and a proper strategy. Dr. Ragan will offer a pragmatic starting point for the broader discussion and information gathering required to address competitiveness issues head-on in a way that is fair, effective, and data-driven.

Recorded Webinar | June 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Capacity Constraints Could Stymie Economic Growth

This executive action briefing warns that low investment levels and tight capacity among manufacturing industries threaten Canada’s economic rebound.

Executive Action | 9 pages | May 2016 | Alicia Macdonald, Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 9 pages | May 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Note de conjoncture canadienne – Résumé Printemps 2016

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 14 pages | May 2016 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

The Canadian Economy in 2016: Insights From the Chief Economist

The economic picture continues to darken for Canada. Low prices for oil and other commodities mean that growth is slipping into a “new normal” of 2 per cent growth at best. The low dollar is helping exporters, but it also means that imported goods and services are more expensive. Governments, both federal and provincial, are staring at several years of fiscal deficits. At a time of uncertainty, join the Conference Board’s Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, Glen Hodgson, for his expert interpretation of the latest economic numbers for Canada, its provinces, the United States, and the world.

Recorded Webinar | May 2016 | Glen Hodgson | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Spring 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 13 pages | May 2016 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Benchmarking Provincial Tax Burdens

This report compares the tax burden on businesses and individuals among provinces based on the calculation of average tax burden ratios. It also discusses the concept of the marginal effective tax rate.

Report | 61 pages | May 2016 | Julie Adès | The Conference Board of Canada

Comparaison des charges fiscales

Ce rapport compare le fardeau fiscal des entreprises et des particuliers dans les différentes provinces sur la base du calcul des ratios moyens de charge fiscale. Il aborde également la notion de taux effectif marginal d’imposition. Cette publication comprend un résumé en français, suivi d'une version anglaise du rapport intégral.

Report | 67 pages | May 2016 | Julie Adès | The Conference Board of Canada

High Value Skills: The Contribution of Canada’s Engineering and Applied Science Technicians and Technologists

In 2013–14, more than 400,000 Canadians were employed as engineering and applied science technicians and technologists. Employment growth for this occupational group has strongly outpaced overall employment growth for Canada as a whole over the past 15 years. And average wages in these occupations are more than 20 per cent higher than the national average. Join us for this webinar in which Pedro Antunes and Julie Adès will provide an economic portrait of an important segment of Canada’s skilled workforce: the engineering and applied science technicians and technologists. This group includes an array of different occupations requiring distinct sets of skills and involving diverse responsibilities. Based on 21 occupational categories, our research quantifies the group’s contribution to the Canadian economy, analyzes past employment trends, and discusses the main factors that will likely influence demand for such professionals in coming years. The Conference Board of Canada undertook research in this area with funding and support from Technology Professionals Canada (TPC), which is a federally incorporated body representing engineering and applied science technicians and technologists from British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario.

Recorded Webinar | April 2016 | Julie Adès, Pedro Antunes | The Conference Board of Canada

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