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Canadian Economic Trends Service

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Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 178 pages | May 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Printemps 2017

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 28 pages | May 2017 | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Spring 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 25 pages | May 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

Rolling Along: The State of Marijuana Legalization in Canada and the United States

The Canadian government has unveiled its draft legislation to legalize marijuana. The proposed Cannabis Act would allow Canadians 18 and over to legally possess up to 30 grams and grow up to four plants in their homes. The legislation also provides for criminal penalties for selling cannabis to children and youth, and would increase enforcement and penalties for driving while drug-impaired. The proposed date for legalization is July 1, 2018. But much remains to be determined over the next 15 months, including: the legislative hurdles that the Cannabis Act will face, the roles of the provinces and territories in regulating and controlling access to the product, and the reaction of the United States to its northern neighbour legalizing marijuana. Meanwhile, four states voted to legalize recreational use in the 2016 elections, bringing the number of states that permit recreational marijuana to 8, plus the District of Columbia. However, the new Trump Administration has signalled that it is considering a crackdown on at least the recreational use of marijuana—which would put it at odds with the growing legalization movement. Professor Sam Kamin of the University of Denver, one of America's expert voices on the subject, will outline the latest developments south of the border, describe what works and don’t works in the U.S., and offer insights on the Canadian strategy. Professor Kamin was recently quoted inTime magazine describing differences between the U.S. and Canadian approaches. In this special webinar to be held on 4/20, hear from someone who can make sense of the myriad components of marijuana law reform.

Recorded Webinar | April 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

Income Inequality, Poverty and Social Cohesion: A Report Card on Social Outcomes in the Provinces

The unexpected results of the two major electoral events of 2016 in the U.K. and the U.S., highlight the social unrest underpinned by growing inequality. Income inequality, poverty, and gender equality are among the key issues garnering growing attention worldwide. Examining inequities is key to understanding what leads to the polarization of societies. How do Canada and its provinces compare to global peers on social outcomes? In the previous Society report card, Canada ranked as a “B” grade performer relative to its peer countries. Although Canada fares well on many measures, it does not do as well on indicators such as income inequality and poverty. How does Canada rank against its peers now? How does performance vary across the country? For the first time, How Canada Performs will compare the social performance of individual provinces with that of 16 advanced peer countries. Join Sheila Rao as she presents the findings of this year’s Report Card and discusses where Canada has improved, where it could do better, and how the provinces rank relative to one another and in a global context. Attendees will learn how the provinces and peer countries fare on indicators of equity, including income inequality, intergenerational income mobility, and the gender wage gap; and how they do on indicators of social cohesion, such as life satisfaction, crime, and voter turnout.

Recorded Webinar | April 2017 | Sheila Rao | The Conference Board of Canada

A Budget In the Midst of Uncertainty—Canadian Outlook from the Chief Economist

The 2017-18 budget sees the federal government trying to boost the economy beyond the slow growth of previous years while wrestling with large annual deficits. The government is expected to increase spending over the near term through substantial growth in its program spending and transfers to other levels of government for infrastructure. The Conference Board projects an estimated deficit of $28.9 billion in fiscal 2017–18, slightly higher than the government’s estimate of $27.8 billion. Our projections show the federal government still facing an operating shortfall of $15 billion in 2020–21. In this special 60-minute webinar that takes place just hours after the federal government tables its budget, Craig Alexander will discuss the implications of the measures presented in the budget, including: Spending Initiatives Fiscal Outlook Impact on Economic Growth The analysis is based on the Conference Board’s unique capacity to assess the budget and provide clients with leading-edge insights. Craig will put the new budget measures in the context of the Conference Board’s latest global, national and provincial outlooks.

Recorded Webinar | March 2017 | Craig Alexander | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 174 pages | January 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Hiver 2017

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 26 pages | January 2017 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 25 pages | January 2017 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

People Power: Immigration Levels and The Impact on Canada’s Population and Economic Growth

Canada’s population has grown from 3.5 million in 1867 to more than 35 million as we approach our 150th birthday in 2017. Looking ahead, how many Canadians will there be at the next anniversary, or even in 2100? Population is more than just a fact or a trivia question—demographics are perhaps the most potent force shaping the country’s future. An aging population will have significant implications for the Canadian economy and long-term policy planning. As the baby boomers move into retirement, economic growth will slow—while costs for public services health care and Old Age Security will increase significantly. An increase in immigration levels is one of the options available to governments to potentially offset the negative effect of an aging population on the economy. The federal government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth itself has made increasing annual immigration levels from 300,000 per year to 450,000 over the next five years. In this 60 minute webinar, Matthew Stewart will describe how different levels of immigration could shape Canada’s demographic and economic future, including: Canada’s overall population—could there be 100 million Canadians by 2100? Long-term economic outlook due to demographic change—how much growth does immigration add to the Canadian economy over time? Impact of demographic change on public spending—does a higher population increase or decrease the amount required to fund health and social services? This webinar is based on research conducted by The Conference Board of Canada. The analysis generates long-term population scenarios based on differing assumptions centred on immigration and fertility rates. These assumptions shape the size and age structure of the population, which affects the outlook for the Canadian economy and, in turn, governments’ fiscal resources to pay for public spending programs.

Live Webinar | January 2017 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Trade Trends in 2017: Challenges and Opportunities for Canada’s Trade Relationships

Canada faces a dramatically changed global economic and business context. The Canadian economy is now characterized by weak domestic growth, uncertainty over the direction of the U.S. economy, and moderating but steady growth in emerging markets. Danielle Goldfarb will provide an overview of The Conference Board of Canada’s outlook on the key trends emerging in Canada’s trade. Webinar participants will receive a copy of the Conference Board’s publication: What will Canada’s Trade Look Like in 2020? Canada’s Export and Import Forecast by Main Trading Partners and the opportunity to learn more about the Canadian Interactive Trade Forecast. The Interactive Trade Forecast provides interactive charts which portrays trends in Canadian exports and imports by country and type of traded goods and services.

Recorded Webinar | December 2016 | Danielle Goldfarb | The Conference Board of Canada

Prospects for 2017: The Outlook for the Canadian Economy—Insights from the Chief Economist

Canada's economy is coming to the end of another difficult year, and the outlook for 2017 is clouded by powerful global forces. The election of Donald Trump in the United States and the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom adds uncertainty about the future of global trade—on which much of Canada’s prosperity is based. The domestic economy began to bounce back in the second half of 2016 and there is growing evidence that the adjustment to the commodity shock is abating. Indeed, 2017 is shaping up for a modest improvement over this year’s GDP growth of 1.5 per cent, but there are considerable risks that require close monitoring. A key issue is Canada’s weak business investment performance that must be addressed to support Canada’s medium-term outlook. As we approach 2017, join the Conference Board's new Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, Craig Alexander for his expert interpretation of the latest economic numbers for Canada, the provinces, the United States, and the world—and what they mean for decision-makers.

Recorded Webinar | December 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 180 pages | November 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Note de conjoncture canadienne: Résumé Automne 2016

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 34 pages | November 2016 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 30 pages | October 2016 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Signs of Optimism? The Canadian Economy Entering 2017—Insights from the Chief Economist

Canada's economy has been on a roller-coaster throughout the first six months of 2016. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.6% in the first quarter. Exports were up sharply, but low oil prices continue to take a toll on national wealth. The impact of low oil prices is most apparent in investment expenditures. Business investment in the oil and gas sector fell by $17 billion last year, and with commodity prices expected to remain low, a recovery in 2016 is not in the cards. At a time of uncertainty, join the Conference Board's Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, Glen Hodgson, for his expert interpretation of the latest economic numbers for Canada, its provinces, the United States, and the world.

Recorded Webinar | August 2016 | Glen Hodgson | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 176 pages | August 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Éte 2016

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 29 pages | August 2016 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Summer 2016

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 26 pages | July 2016 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Choosing Wisely: Responsibly Recycling Revenues from Carbon Pricing

Carbon pricing. The primary objective is, of course, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but that’s only half the story. Carbon pricing can also generate substantial revenue for provincial governments, which can then be recycled back into the economy. However, just how this money is used can have lasting effects on both the economic and environmental objectives of the province and the people living in it. So how can governments ensure that these funds will be used in the best way possible? Join Dr. Chris Ragan, Chair of Canada's Ecofiscal Commission, for this 60-minute webinar in which he will guide you through the Commission's newest report, Choose Wisely: Options and Trade-offs in Recycling Carbon Pricing Revenues, published in April 2016. As priorities differ across provinces, revenue-recycling choices will differ across the country. Dr. Ragan will explore these changes, and discuss how household fairness and business competitiveness challenges can be addressed with good policy and a proper strategy. Dr. Ragan will offer a pragmatic starting point for the broader discussion and information gathering required to address competitiveness issues head-on in a way that is fair, effective, and data-driven.

Recorded Webinar | June 2016 | The Conference Board of Canada

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