 | | Glen Hodgson
Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist
Forecasting and Analysis |
The Beach Boys wrote and performed a popular song in the 1960s that extolled the virtues of California girls. The image created in the song was of a young woman who was tall, blond, tanned and slim, and who spent most days at the beach. The "California girl" was admittedly a mythical creature then, and the myth is slowly disappearing today.
Things have changed in two important ways for girls—and boys—whether they live in California or across North America. First, there are fundamental changes to demographics. Second, obesity is a significant and rising factor in most industrial countries—including California.
California is increasingly being populated by people of Hispanic and Asian ancestry, as is evident everywhere you go in the state. What the U.S. census calls "non-Hispanic whites", or Caucasians, comprised 92 per cent of the population in 1960. California's population has doubled since the end of the 1960s—and almost all of that growth is due to increases in the non-Caucasian population.
According to the 2010 U.S. census, nearly 38 per cent of California's population was of Hispanic origin, and another 13 per cent was of Asian origin. Only 40 per cent of the California population in 2010 was non-Hispanic white or Caucasian. Although the number of Caucasians in California has not declined in absolute terms, the population share has fallen sharply and will continue to decline, in part because fertility rates among the Caucasian population are much lower than among Hispanics in particular.
Of the remaining ethnic groups, African Americans represented 6 per cent and native Americans were 1 per cent of California's population. The balance of the population was smaller ethnic groups or mixed-race.
So, as the 2010 population data indicate, the idea of a California girl that is blond is much less likely today as a share of the population, since Caucasians are no longer the majority of California's population. Conference Board research shows that diversity can be good for the economy of California and indeed Canada, if there is continued progress on economic and social integration, skills recognition and utilization, etc.
And second, the odds of a Californian being slim are increasingly, well, slim. Indeed, the facts on rising obesity rates in the United States are frightening, and California is part of that reality.
In 1985, California had an obesity rate below 10 per cent. Since much of the population in the 1960s was slim, the Beach Boys’ California girl image had some legitimacy then. But not so today. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports that no U.S. state had an obesity rate below 20 per cent in 2010. California had an obesity rate in 2010 of 24 per cent, making it one of only 14 states with an obesity rate below 25 per cent—and just barely below that threshold.
There is no single cause for the global rise in obesity. It is likely due to a combination of many factors, including: a poor diet that is too rich in sugar, fat, low-value carbs and salt; easy access to cheap and plentiful food; lifestyle, with limited walking and exercise; even the design of our cities and communities, with heavy reliance on the auto that limits the need to walk long distances as part of daily life. The impact of chemical additives to food is now being researched intensively.
With rising obesity levels comes a variety of health-related problems. Diabetes rates have soared among adults and children. Rising levels of obesity across North America and the industrial world are also linked to higher rates of hyper-tension, heart disease, cancer and other illnesses. Treatment of chronic disease is absorbing a much larger share of health care spending, and life expectancy in affected countries may be reaching a plateau. The Conference Board of Canada's Canadian Alliance for Sustainable Health Care (CASHC) will be examining the causes and consequences of rising obesity rates, and evaluate strategies for combating this growing population health epidemic, in Canada as much as in California. An upcoming report from the Conference Board’s Centre for Food in Canada research will also include recommendations that respond to the obesity challenge.
In sum, the lyrics to “California Girls” may be unchanged in 2012, but demographic forces and population health factors have changed significantly since the 1960s. The myth is evaporating, even if it is still a catchy tune.