 | | Mario Lefebvre
Director
Centre for Municipal Studies |
Version française
Montréal is a pivotal engine for economic growth in the province of Québec. As Montréal goes, so go most of its surrounding communities and, in fact, most of the province. With Montréal’s economic performance being sub-par for the past 25 years (1985–2010), it should come as no surprise that economic growth in Québec has been chronically weaker than the national average. In fact, over that time period, the province managed average annual economic growth of 2 per cent per year compared to 2.4 per cent per year for Canada as a whole.
If growth were expressed on a per capita basis, Québec would not have lagged Canada over the past 25 years. Québec’s population growth has been much weaker than that of the country as a whole, and slower population growth usually means slower economic growth.
Some slowdown in the past decade was to be expected because of the turmoil experienced by Quebec’s natural resource and manufacturing sectors. But Québec’s underperformance compared to the rest of the country is a long-term problem. Québec has resources such as hydro-electricity, a highly-educated population and many other strengths… but something is missing.
The real issue is Montréal itself. Montreal accounts for about half of the Québec economy, and it is therefore not surprising that soft growth in Montréal has kept the overall provincial growth result fairly modest. Growth has exceeded 2 per cent in the Montréal CMA in only 9 of the past 25 years, and only twice in the past decade.
Yet no connection is being made between the CMA’s struggles and those of the province as a whole. Québec has developed a “Plan Nord” for Northern economic development; now it needs a “Plan Sud,” focused on reviving Montréal.
As illustrated by a 2006 Conference Board study, entitled Canada’s Hub Cities: A Driving Force of the National Economy, Montréal is a key economic driver of the Québec economy—if the Montréal economy grows strongly, the rest of the province’s economic performance is enhanced.1 Montréal is important not only because of its significant economic weight, but also because it lifts growth in the rest of the province.
Today, Montréal is severely challenged both politically and economically. The amalgamation in 2002, followed by the partial de-amalgamation in 2006, has made the region a challenge to govern and manage because of its numerous governing bodies. Moreover, past under-investment in infrastructure has compromised the city’s productive capacity and generated an infrastructure shortfall that puts tremendous pressure on fiscal budgets for several cities in the Montréal CMA. The Champlain bridge to the south shore needs major repairs or even full replacement; the Turcot interchange west of downtown needs major work; and those are just a few of the large projects that need to be tackled.
In addition, Québec’s population is aging faster than that of Canada as a whole.
Slower growth in the working age population of the province suggests that increased immigration will be required to support any population and workforce growth over the medium and long term.
A strong Montréal CMA is critical to the economic success of the region, the province and all of Canada. It is not too late to act—now is a great time for governments, business leaders, educators and all members of the civil society to work together on a new direction. The public consultation being led by the Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal (CMM) this fall is a welcome initiative. The intent of this consultation is to come up with a plan to ensure that the 82 communities that are part of the CMM can face the future together in a strong and competitive way. The results of the CMM’s public consultation can play a pivotal role in such a revival plan—a plan that would bode well not just for the CMM, but for Québec and for Canada.