Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2017

The Conference Board of Canada, 186 pages, September 13, 2017
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy is advancing at its fastest pace in nearly two decades.
  • Alberta’s economy is recovering; it will be the fastest growing province this year. The recovery will lose speed next year as oil prices struggle to increase. Saskatchewan’s economic recovery will also cool next year.
  • Quebec’s unemployment rate dropped to a 20-year low, and it has successfully turned its fiscal situation around. However, the effects of an aging population will ease the Quebec economy’s rate of growth.
  • The overall effects of the forest fires in British Columbia are still being assessed. With a slowdown in the housing sector, economic growth is expected to weaken over the near term.
  • Manitoba’s economy is not expected to grow much next year as investment in major power projects will come down and metal mining will suffer from declining reserves.
  • With the Canadian economy gaining speed, more interest rate hikes are in store over the next two years.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Résumé

Newfoundland and Labrador—Economic Growth Takes Off in 2018

  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Government
  • Trade

Prince Edward Island—Prince Edward Island Set to Lead Atlantic Region

  • Exports and Manufacturing Growing Together
  • Construction and Financial Services Benefiting From Strong Housing Starts
  • Government Spending Set for a Boost
  • Tourists Flock to the Island Province

Nova Scotia—Nova Scotia’s Economy Struggling to Grow

  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlooks
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors

New Brunswick—Economy Challenged by Demographics

  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlooks
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors

Quebec—Riding a New Wave of Growth

  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Housing
  • Government
  • Trade

Québec (français)—Nouvelle phase de croissance

  • Consommation
  • Investissement
  • Marché de l’habitation
  • Secteur public
  • Commerce extérieur

Ontario—Ontario’s Economy Pushing Ahead

  • Consumers Continue to Spend
  • Business Investment to Rebound in 2018
  • Residential Investment to Take a Breather
  • Exports Disappoint

Manitoba—Diverse Economy Will Pull Province Through Rough Weather

  • Households
  • Government
  • Business
  • Key Industries

Saskatchewan—The Glass Is Half Full: A Warm Outlook for the Wheat Province

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Outlook
  • Agriculture
  • Mining

Alberta—Taking the Lead

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment
  • Government
  • Trade Outlook

British Columbia—Housing, Energy, and Forestry to Cool B.C.’s Pace of Growth

  • Investment Outlook
  • Forestry Sector Outlook
  • Energy Sector

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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