Money in the Bank: The Outlook for Canada’s Banking Services Industry

The Conference Board of Canada, May 9, 2017 at 02:00 PM EDT
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The Canadian banking services industry expanded at a rapid pace in recent years, significantly outpacing overall economic growth largely on the strength of housing and equity markets. However, the industry’s expansion is poised to slow, due to weaker growth in consumer and business credit and smaller gains in North American equity markets.

The Conference Board of Canada has produced its first Industrial Outlook for Canada’s Banking Services Industry. Overall, we expect the industry to post growth in output of between 2.5 to 3 per cent throughout the forecast, below the growth seen in recent years, but still outpacing the rate of the overall Canadian economy.

In this webinar, you will get a 5-year revenue, cost, employment and profitability outlook for the banking industry and its major segments, including:

  • Financial institutions that take deposits and issue credit (i.e. banks and credit unions), which account for over two-thirds of the industry’s gross domestic product and close to 60 per cent of its $245 billion in revenues;
  • Securities, portfolio management and pension funds, which now account for one-third of the industry’s revenues (up from 28 per cent 5 years ago);
  • Non-depository credit intermediation firms, which include institutions issuing credit cards, sales financing, and cash loans, and account for just under 10 per cent of both industry output and revenues.

The outlook is based on the Conference Board’s Canadian Industrial Outlook Service, which covers eighteen Canadian industries and is updated twice a year using the Conference Board's econometric and financial model.

This webinar is a must-attend for anyone with stakes in the industry, including: bankers, credit unions, wealth management professionals, market analysts, investors and regulators.

Webinar Highlights

During this 45-minute webinar, Kristelle Audet will outline the key factors shaping the outlook for the banking industry, including:

  • Interest Rates — Revenues for chartered banks and credit unions are closely tied to interest rates, and low rates have led banks to increase other sources of income to generate revenue. Banking fees and other financial services, including insurance and investment management services, are increasingly important to revenue growth.
  • Housing Market and Household Debt — A modest slowdown in Canada’s housing market is expected this year as new taxes and tightened mortgage changes begin to have an impact. In turn, this will translate into slower growth in mortgage debt, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of total consumer debt.
  • Business Loans -- Chartered bank loans issued to the private sector have recorded their longest expansion period on record, with twenty-four consecutive quarters of growth since the 2009 recession. However, the double-digit increases seen through 2016 are clearly unsustainable, thus a slowdown in private sector lending growth is expected.
  • Securities and Portfolio Management -- This segment expanded at the fastest pace in recent years, but its success is closely tied to the performance of the North American stock market.
  • About Kristelle

    Photo of Kristelle AudetKristelle Audet is Senior Economist in the Industrial Economic Trends group. She is responsible for overseeing and producing the economic forecast, research, and analysis for several Canadian industries. Ms. Audet is also the author of regular custom economic analysis and forecast for public and private sector clients. Since joining the organization in 2011, she has produced several research projects related to international trade and firm competitiveness for the Conference Board's Global Trade Centre, the Centre for Food as well as for external clients. Topics she has covered include foreign direct investment, value added trade, Canada's global competitiveness, as well as trade in food and financial services.

    Kristelle holds a Bachelor of Business Administration with a concentration in economics from HEC Montréal as well as a Master's degree in Economics and International Financial Economics from the University of Warwick in the UK.

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Price: $199.00 (CAD)