Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2016

The Conference Board of Canada, 81 pages, August 30, 2016
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy will pick up some momentum in the second half of this year as the federal government rolls out its infrastructure spending program.
  • The rebuilding efforts in fire-ravaged Fort McMurray will lift real GDP in Alberta in 2017.
  • British Columbia’s economy is booming and will lead all others this year and next—by far.
  • While no province will see its economy contract next year, conditions remain difficult in some parts of Canada.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Resumé

Newfoundland and Labrador—A Boost From Mining and Manufacturing

  • Goods Sector Outlook
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

Prince Edward Island—Steady Growth for P.E.I.

  • Exports Continue to Be the Engine of Island Growth
  • Government to Begin Transition Out of Cost-Containment Mode
  • Manufacturing Rides the Coattails of Strong Export Demand
  • P.E.I. Still a Popular Destination for Tourists

Nova Scotia—Stronger Economic Growth Expected in Nova Scotia

  • Construction Outlook
  • Manufacturing Outlook
  • Mining Outlook
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

New Brunswick—No Economic Growth for New Brunswick This Year

  • Mining Outlook
  • Forestry Bright Spot—But With Significant Risks
  • Manufacturing Outlook
  • Construction Outlook
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

Quebec—Quebec’s Economy Advances Slowly

  • Business Investment Still Declining
  • Export Recovery is Fragile
  • Consumers Buoying Economy
  • Government Infrastructure Spending Props Economy

Québec (français)—L’économie du Québec progresse lentement

  • L’investissement des entreprises diminue encore
  • La reprise des exportations est fragile
  • Les consommateurs soutiennent l’économie
  • Les dépenses gouvernementales en infrastructures soutiennent l’économie

Ontario—Ontario Consumers: Engine of Growth

  • Consumers Hungry for Homes and Cars
  • Business Investment Weak
  • Terms of Trade Favour Exporters
  • Fiscal Outlook

Manitoba—Manitoba Only Prairie Province to Perform Well

  • Mixed Forecast for Mining
  • Construction Fuelled by Large Projects
  • Crops Threatened by Bad Weather This Year
  • Manufacturing to Perform Well
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

Saskatchewan—Resource Sector Downturn Not Over

  • Mining Industry Outlook
  • Construction Outlook
  • Agriculture Outlook
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

Alberta—The Worst Appears to Be Over

  • Goods Sector to Recover
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

British Columbia—B.C.’s Red-Hot Housing Sector Leads to Growing Concerns

  • Concerns About Vancouver’s Surging Housing Mount
  • Challenges Ahead for Mining

Forecast Tables

  • Key Economic Indicators: Canada
  • Gross Domestic Product by Province and Industry

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