Cost Risk Analysis for Chronic Lung Disease in Canada

The Conference Board of Canada, 62 pages, March 2012
Report by Louis Theriault, Gregory Hermus, Danielle Goldfarb, Carole Stonebridge, Fares Bounajm
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This report provides forecasts of chronic lung disease rates and associated economic burden to the year 2030, to help policy-makers determine effective chronic lung health policies and set priorities among competing options.

Document Highlights

Respiratory diseases are a significant cause of mortality and represent some of the most costly diseases in Canada. The growth in the number of older Canadians will contribute to the rising economic burden associated with chronic lung disease. One way to address this burden is to reduce the risk factors that encourage their development.

This report examines the cost savings from reducing six of the risk factors that contribute to the three major chronic lung diseases—lung cancer, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Based on a status quo scenario and a forecast scenario, the report estimates that over the entire forecast horizon (2012–2030), the policy scenario could reduce the economic burden by a combined $12.2 billion.

The cost savings from the policy scenario would increase dramatically over time, compared with the status quo scenario, where only minimal improvement would take place. The analysis in the report suggests that investments to offset future costs associated with chronic lung disease need to be made well in advance to ensure the reduction in the economic burden actually materializes.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1—Background

Chapter 2—Overview of the Project

  • Stage 1: Review of Literature and Data Gathering on Chronic Lung Disease
  • Stage 2: Development of the Modelling Platform
  • Stage 3: Establishing/Facilitating Input From External Experts
  • Stage 4: Simulation of the Model to Reflect Base-Case and Policy Option Scenarios

Chapter 3—Methodology and Assumptions

  • Methodology
  • Assumptions
  • Relative Risks for Chronic Lung Disease
  • Attributable Risk for Chronic Lung Disease

Chapter 4—Results

  • Base-case results
  • Policy scenario compared with base-case

Chapter 5—Economic Burden of Chronic Lung Disease

  • Overview
  • Base-case results
  • Impact of the policy scenario
  • Sensitivity of targeted risk factors to economic burden reduction

Chapter 6—Policy Implications

  • Understanding policy choices in a broader context
  • Specific risk factors and strategies
  • Reducing smoking rates
  • Reducing second-hand smoke exposure
  • Improving indoor air quality

Chapter 7—Limitations

Chapter 8—Conclusion

Appendix A—Higher Risk Occupations—Standard Occupational Classification (SOC-1991)

Appendix B—Relative Risks and Mortality Rates

Appendix C—BIbliography

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