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Ontario Economic Forecast

The Conference Board of Canada’s Economic Trends Division is recognized worldwide for its expertise in economic forecasting, modelling and analysis. We have produced accurate economic forecasts for more than 25 years.

We examine the economic outlook for Ontario, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, housing, demographics and trade and labour market conditions.

The Provincial Outlook is updated quarterly using the Conference Board’s large econometric model of the provincial economies.

Five-year forecasts with 24 years of history for more than 210 indicators are available for Ontario. The indicators are updated four times a year.

What Data Do We Forecast?

Key Economic Indicators: Ontario
Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices,Ontario Millions $
Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices,Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Implicit Price Deflator: G.D.P at Market Price, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Consumer Price Index, Ontario 2002=1.0
Wages & Salaries Per Employee, Ontario Thousands $
Primary household income , Ontario Millions $
Household disposable income , Ontario Millions $
Population of Labour Force Age , Ontario Thousands
Labour Force , Ontario Thousands
Employment, Ontario Thousands
Unemployment Rate, Ontario %
Retail Sales , Ontario Millions $
Housing Starts , Ontario Number of units
 
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry (Millions, Chained $ 2007)
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Crop and animal production , Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Forestry and Logging , Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Support activities for agriculture & forestry, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Fishing, hunting and trapping, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Mining and oil and gas extraction, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Manufacturing, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Construction, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Utilities, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Goods-Producing Industries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Transportation & Warehousing, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Information & Culture Industries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Finance and insurance, real estate and renting and leasing and management of companies and enterprises, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Commercial Services, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Non-Commercial Services, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Public administration , Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, Service-Producing Industries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
GDP at Basic Prices by Industry, All Industries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
 
Labour Market ('000)
Employment, Ontario, Agriculture Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Other Primary Industries Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Utilities Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Manufacturing Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Construction Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Wholesale and Retail Trade Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Transportation and Warehousing Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Other Commercial Services Industries Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Education & Health Industries Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Public Administration Thousands
Employment, Education, Ontario Thousands
Employment, Health & Social Services, Ontario Thousands
Employment, Ontario, Total Thousands
Unemployed, Ontario Thousands
Participation Rate, Ontario %
 
Demography ('000)
Total Population, Ontario Thousands
Net Provincial Migration, Ontario Thousands
Inter-provincial In-migration, Ontario Thousands
Inter-provincial Out-migration, Ontario Thousands
Net International Migration, Ontario Thousands
Natural Rate of Population Increase, Ontario Thousands
   
Final consumption expenditure (Millions $)  
Final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Goods, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Durable Goods, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Semi-durable Goods, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Non-durable Goods, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Services, Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Services: Services related to dwelling and property (including rental and imputed rent), Ontario Millions $
Household final consumption expenditure: Services: Other Services, Ontario Millions $
Non-profit institutions serving households' final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions $
General governments final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions $
   
Gross fixed capital formation (Millions $)  
Gross fixed capital formation, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation: Business, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation: Business - Residential Structures, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation: Business - Non-Residential Structures, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation: Business - Machinery and equipment, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation: Business - Intellectual property products, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation, Non-profit institutions serving households, Ontario Millions $
Gross fixed capital formation, General governments, Ontario Millions $
   
Trade (Millions $)  
Investment in inventories, Ontario Millions $
Exports of Goods & Services, Ontario Millions $
Exports To Other Countries, Ontario Millions $
Exports of Goods to Other Countries, Ontario Millions $
Exports of Services to Other Countries, Ontario Millions $
Exports To Other Provinces, Ontario Millions $
Exports of Goods to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions $
Exports of Services to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions $
Net Exports, Ontario Millions $
Imports of Goods & Services, Ontario Millions $
Imports To Other Countries, Ontario Millions $
Imports of Goods to Other Countries, Ontario Millions $
Imports of Services to Other Countries, Ontario Millions $
Imports To Other Provinces, Ontario Millions $
Imports of Goods to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions $
Imports of Services to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions $
   
Final consumption expenditure (Millions, Chained $2007)  
Final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Goods, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Durable Goods, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Semi-durable Goods, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Non-durable Goods, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Services, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Services: Services related to dwelling and property (including rental and imputed rent), Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Household final consumption expenditure: Services: Other Services, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Non-profit institutions serving households' final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
General governments final consumption expenditure, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
   
Gross fixed capital formation (Millions, Chained $2007)  
Gross fixed capital formation, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Business gross fixed capital formation, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Business gross fixed capital formation, Residential Structures, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Business gross fixed capital formation, Non-Residential Structures, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Business gross fixed capital formation, Machinery and equipment, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Business gross fixed capital formation, Intellectual property products, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Gross fixed capital formation, Non-profit institutions serving households, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Gross fixed capital formation, General governments, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
   
Trade (Millions, Chained $ 2007)  
Investment in inventories, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports of Goods & Services, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports To Other Countries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports of Goods to Other Countries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports of Services to Other Countries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports To Other Provinces, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports of Goods to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Exports of Services to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Net Exports, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports of Goods & Services, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports To Other Countries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports of Goods to Other Countries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports of Services to Other Countries, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports To Other Provinces, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports of Goods to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
Imports of Services to Other Provinces, Ontario Millions, Chained $ 2007
   
Average Weekly Wages & Salaries Per Employee ($, Industrial Composite)  
Average Weekly Wages & Salaries Per Employee, Ontario $, Industrial Composite
   
Gross domestic product, Income-based (Millions $)  
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Compensation of employees; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Compensation of employees: Wages and salaries; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Compensation of employees: Employers' social contributions; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Gross Operating Surplus; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Gross Operating Surplus: Net Operating Surplus - Corporations; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Gross Operating Surplus: Consumption of fixed capital - Corporations & General governments; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Gross mixed income; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Gross mixed income: Net mixed income; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Gross mixed income: Consumption of fixed capital - unincorporated businesses; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Taxes less subsidies on production; Ontario Millions $
Gross domestic product, Income-based, Taxes less subsidies on products and imports; Ontario Millions $
   
Current accounts - Households (Millions $)  
Current accounts - Households, Compensation of employees; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households: Non-farm Income; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households: Farm Income; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households: Rental income of households; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Net property income; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers received by households; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers received by households from non profit institutions serving households, corporations and non-residents; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers received by households from general governments, employment insurance benefits; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers received by households from general governments, social security benefits; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers received by households from general governments, other benefits benefits; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households to non profit institutions serving households; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households to corporations; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households to non-residents; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households to general governments ; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households to general governments - personal income taxes; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households to general governments - other current transfers; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Current transfers paid by households - others (to non-profit institutions serving households, corporations and non-residents); Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Household net savings; Ontario Millions $
Current accounts - Households, Household Savings rate; Ontario %
   
Housing (Number of units)  
Housing Starts, Singles, Ontario Number of units
Housing Starts, Multiples, Ontario Number of units
Housing Completions, Singles, Ontario Number of units
Housing Completions, Multiples, Ontario Number of units
   
Real Domestic Product, Ontario (Millions $ 2007)  
Real Domestic Product: Metal Ore Mining, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Oil and gas extraction & Coal mining , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Wholesale Trade, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Retail Trade, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Imputed Rent, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Other Finance and Insurance, Real Estate and Renting and Leasing and Management of Companies and Enterprises, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Professional, scientific, technical services, administrative and support, waste management and remediation services , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Professional, scientific & technical services , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Accommodation and food services, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Arts, entertainment and recreation, Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Other services (except public administration), Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Educational Services , Ontario Millions $ 2007
Real Domestic Product: Healthcare and social assistance , Ontario Millions $ 2007
   
Implicit Price Indexes, Consumption Expenditures, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Exports, Imports, Gross Domestic and Final Domestic Demand, Ontario (2007=1.00)  
Implicit Price Deflator, Final consumption expenditure, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Goods, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Durable Goods, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Semi-durable Goods, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Non-durable Goods, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Services, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Services: Rent, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Household final consumption expenditure: Services: Other Services, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Non-profit institutions serving households' final consumption expenditure, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, General governments final consumption expenditure, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Gross fixed capital formation, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Business gross fixed capital formation, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Business gross fixed capital formation, Residential Structures, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Business gross fixed capital formation, Non-Residential Structures, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Business gross fixed capital formation, Machinery and equipment, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Business gross fixed capital formation, Intellectual property products, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Gross fixed capital formation, Non-profit institutions serving households, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Gross fixed capital formation, General governments, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports of Goods & Services, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports To Other Countries, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports of Goods to Other Countries, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports of Services to Other Countries, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports To Other Provinces, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports of Goods to Other Provinces, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Exports of Services to Other Provinces, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports of Goods & Services, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports To Other Countries, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports of Goods to Other Countries, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports of Services to Other Countries, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports To Other Provinces, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports of Goods to Other Provinces, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Imports of Services to Other Provinces, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Final Domestic Demand, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
Implicit Price Deflator, Final consumption expenditure, Ontario Index, 2007=1.00
   
Nominal Domestic Product: Business Non-Residential Investment Spending (Millions $)  
Nominal Domestic Product: Business Non-Residential Investment Spending: Non-Energy , Ontario Millions $
Nominal Domestic Product: Business Non-Residential Investment Spending: Energy , Ontario Millions $

Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Provincial Forecast Model

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