Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2009
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.
Report by
The Conference Board of Canada, 68 pages, November 2009
Document Highlights:
- Canada’s economy is expected to rebound by 2.9 per cent next year. Rising
consumer confidence and low financing rates should help loosen purse
strings, while generous government spending will also add to growth.
- Newfoundland and Labrador won’t see growth before 2011. Declining
offshore oil production and weaker construction activity over the next year
will prevent a recovery.
- The Maritime provinces, along with Manitoba, will post positive real
GDP growth in 2009. All four provinces have managed to avoid the
boom–bust cycle.
- Quebec did not avoid the global recession. But better days are expected in
2010 as business investment picks up.
- Public infrastructure stimulus will play a large role in the Ontario rebound.
Economic growth will also be helped by modest improvement in labour
markets and strengthening consumer and business confidence.
- Extremely weak global demand for fertilizers hampered overall real GDP
growth in Saskatchewan this year. Prospects for the battered potash industry
should improve in 2010.
- Renewed interest in expanding the oil sands industry will shore up Alberta’s
economy in the near term, while a long-awaited revival of the forestry industry
will support better times in British Columbia.
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