Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2008
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.
Executive Summary by
Marie-Christine Bernard
The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages, August 2008
Document Highlights:
- A decline in exports, especially in the auto sector, will result in
real GDP growth for Canada of only 1.7 per cent this year.
Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.7 per cent in
2009, helped by a better trade performance and still strong
domestic demand.
- The Prairie provinces will steal the spotlight this year.
Saskatchewan is booming while Manitoba’s economy is
projected to grow steadily over the forecast period.
- Alberta and British Columbia are losing speed. Labour supply
constraints and poor drilling performance will dampen economic
growth this year in Alberta. British Columbia is feeling
the effects of the downturn in the United States. Both the
forestry and manufacturing sectors will contract considerably
for one more year.
- Development of the Deep Panuke natural gas field will stimulate
Nova Scotia, while a new PotashCorp mine and processing plant
will fuel the construction industry in New Brunswick. Prince
Edward Island will experience stable GDP growth in 2008-09.
- Despite sky-high crude oil prices, oil production will not provide
much stimulus to Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy
this year. Ontario’s economy has deteriorated considerably
since the end of 2007. The auto sector is reeling. A new Toyota
plant coming on stream should help Ontario rebound next year.
Quebec’s economic outlook is not as precarious. Neither
province is expected to slip into recession.
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