Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2009
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.
Executive Summary by
Marie-Christine Bernard
The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages, February 2009
Document Highlights:
- The U.S.-led global recession has dragged Canada into recession. Canada’s economy is expected to contract for three consecutive quarters, going back to the fourth quarter of 2008, resulting in a 0.5 per cent decline in real GDP this year.
- Only four provinces will record any growth this year—Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.
- The precipitous drop in oil prices and the credit crisis has been detrimental to energy expansion plans. The massive pull back in oil sands expenditures will push economic growth in Alberta into negative territory this year for the first time since 1986.
- While the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics will shore up economic prospects in British Columbia next year, the economy will still contract as forestry, manufacturing, and construction falter and the domestic economy loses ground this year.
- Ontario’s economic woes will deepen in 2009. The economy will suffer blows from the underperforming manufacturing sector and from the rapidly weakening domestic economy. Large job losses are expected in 2009.
- Quebec’s export-dependent economy is also exposed to the global slowdown, and real GDP will contract this year.
- Real GDP in Newfoundland and Labrador will falter in 2009. The mining sector is expected to plunge, but the domestic economy should remain healthy.
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