Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2008
This quarterly economic forecast examines the short-term economic outlook for Canada - all major components including consumer expenditures, housing, government, non-energy business investment, and trade. The outlook for the financial, labour, and energy markets is also given along with costs and prices. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.
Report by
The Conference Board of Canada, 77 pages, November 2008
Document Highlights:
- A lengthy contraction in U.S. household spending will send the U.S. economy into recession late in 2008 and early next year. Still, real U.S. GDP will advance by 1.8 per cent this year before dropping to growth of only 0.5 per cent in 2009.
- Canadian exports will continue to suffer in 2009. Auto exports are estimated to have dropped by 19 per cent this year, decimated by failing U.S. demand and high gasoline prices.
- The U.S. financial crisis is causing turmoil on a global scale. Canada’s domestic economy will not escape the implications of tight credit conditions and diving business and consumer confidence.
- Provincial government finances will be squeezed in 2009, while business investment plans will be put on hold.
- A weaker-than-expected trade performance and softer commodity prices have led to significant downward revisions to our near-term economic outlook. Real GDP growth of only 0.7 per cent is forecast for 2008, followed by a modest 1.5 per cent gain in 2009.
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