Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2010

The Conference Board of Canada, 109 pages, March 31, 2010
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term national outlook. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.

Document Highlights

  • Coordinated and extensive policy efforts the world over have been successful at pulling the global economy on to the path of recovery. Canada should experience robust economic growth over the next four years, as we close the gap on our productive capacity.
  • Beyond 2014, economic growth will be restrained by the exodus of baby boomers from the labour market, a dominant trend that will continue until 2028.
  • Tight labour markets provide support for the strong immigration assumptions incorporated in this forecast. Annual immigration will top out at just over 350,000 per year in the final three years of the forecast.
  • Strong immigration will not reverse Canada’s aging trend, but it will help keep total population growth relatively stable at close to 1 per cent per year throughout the forecast period. By 2030, Canada’s population will reach 41.7 million, up from 33.6 million in 2009.
  • Strong growth in emerging markets—such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia—will keep commodity prices elevated over the long term and provide trading opportunities for Canadian firms. Still, the United States will remain Canada’s most important export market.
  • The recession has left the federal and many provincial governments mired in red ink. Provincial governments will find it particularly difficult to correct the situation as aging boomers put pressure on health care budgets. At the same time, the federal government is expected to play a smaller direct role in tomorrow’s economy.

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