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Canadian Economic Trends Service

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Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Printemps 2018

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 29 pages | April 2018 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2018

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 181 pages | April 2018 | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Spring 2018

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 32 pages | April 2018 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook with the Chief Economist: Tough Decisions Come Due in 2018

From an economics perspective, 2017 turned out better than anticipated—and there is momentum heading into 2018. The Canadian economy delivered 3 per cent growth in 2017, the fastest of the G7 economies. But the pace of growth in Canada is already cooling in 2018, and policymakers have many tough decisions to make on interest rates, trade strategies and improving the country’s business climate.

Recorded Webinar | March 2018 | Craig Alexander | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Bulletin: Spring 2018

This briefing provides highlights of our quarterly Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Website | March 2018 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

The Impact of a NAFTA Dissolution on Canada’s Economy

This briefing describes the economic impact of terminating the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Briefing | 20 pages | March 2018 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

L’impact d’une disparition de l’ALENA sur l’économie canadienne

Ce compte rendu de recherche décrit les conséquences économiques en cas de disparition de l’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain.

Cette publication comprend un résumé en français, suivi d’une version anglaise du rapport intégral.

Note de recherche | 23 pages | March 2018 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

After NAFTA: The Potential Economic Impact for Canada

The North American Free Trade Agreement is in critical condition. With negotiations reaching a crucial stage in early 2018, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that we could soon be in a post-NAFTA world. The Conference Board of Canada has conducted analysis of the potential economic impact of NAFTA’s demise. In this webinar, find out the potential economic impact for Canada if NAFTA ends.

Recorded Webinar | March 2018 | Brent Dowdall, Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2018

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 184 pages | February 2018 | The Conference Board of Canada

Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Hiver 2018

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 34 pages | February 2018 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2018

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 31 pages | February 2018 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Sour Milk? Dairy Supply Management and Implications for NAFTA Negotiations

Canada’s system of dairy supply management has emerged as a major hurdle in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Dairy trade groups in the United States are taking a very hard line against Canada’s policy, and the Trump administration has picked up on this position. The most recent U.S. demands called for Canada to eliminate its existing system within 10 years, a position that Canada has rejected.

Supply management has long been a controversial domestic issue in Canada. In this environment, however, the Canadian policy threatens to produce a breach that could affect our overall trading relationship with our most important trade partner. Fuelled by strong feelings on both sides of the border, dairy threatens to become an issue in which sovereignty may override economic and commercial concerns.

Understanding the U.S. perspective on Canada’s dairy supply management is an important step in formulating an effective Canadian strategy for negotiations. In this webinar, Dr. Andrew Novakovic will provide that perspective.

Dr. Novakovic is E. V. Baker Professor of Agricultural Economics at the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. He is an expert in the economics of agricultural and food product markets, with a particular focus on dairy foods. This includes the economics of market coordination and pricing, the operation of food processing and marketing firms, and the economic regulation of marketing and pricing activities.

Join Dr. Novakovic for a webinar that illustrates how milk goes far beyond the breakfast table.

Recorded Webinar | January 2018 | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Bulletin: Winter 2018

This briefing provides highlights of our quarterly Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Website | December 2017 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook with the Chief Economist: A Slowdown in Store

The strength of the Canadian economy has taken everyone by surprise this year. Fuelled by a pace of 4.5 per cent growth in the second quarter, the economy is on track to post a stellar performance of greater than 3 per cent in 2017, putting it on track to outperform most developed countries.

The economy added more than 200,000 jobs in the first 8 months of the year and employment is on pace to grow by 1.5 per cent this year, the strongest annual growth since 2007. The improved employment landscape has boosted consumer optimism, supporting consumption in the first half of the year.

Consumer spending has been the driver of this performance, as it has grown at an annual pace of over 4.5 per cent. Business investment is posting its first increase in three years.

However, the recent pace of expansion is unsustainable and economic growth will slow in 2018, reflecting slower consumer spending and a decline in residential investment. The uncertainty around the future of the NAFTA in some ways exemplifies the weakness in the trade sector this year and next.

Get The Conference Board of Canada’s latest global, national and provincial economic outlooks from Craig Alexander, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist. This presentation provides economic analysts and organizational decision-makers alike with a concise, engaging and interactive review of the near-term economic outlook.

Recorded Webinar | December 2017 | Craig Alexander | The Conference Board of Canada

Résumé de la note de conjoncture canadienne : Automne 2017

Ce résumé trimestriel reproduit, dans ses grandes lignes, la Note de conjoncture canadienne qui donne les perspectives économiques à court terme pour l’ensemble du Canada.

Résumé | 29 pages | December 2017 | Matthew Stewart | Le Conference Board du Canada

Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Report | 172 pages | December 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2017

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Executive Summary | 26 pages | November 2017 | Matthew Stewart | The Conference Board of Canada

Inside the Bubble? Assessing Real Estate Risk in Canada

Since 2000, real home prices have doubled in Canada. The explosive growth leads to talk of a housing bubble. These concerns are not surprising given the dramatic rise in prices, especially in the regional markets of Toronto and Vancouver. Much of the real estate buying has been debt financed, and the high level of household indebtedness poses an economic vulnerability.

In this webinar, Craig Alexander provides a detailed analysis of the fundamentals that are shaping housing markets and puts the discussion about housing bubbles in proper context. He discusses real estate trends in Canada and compares them to the experience of the U.S. housing bubble. He also takes a detailed look at the risks associated with household debt and mortgage lending, in particular. Craig also discusses the appropriate regulatory and monetary policy response to the risks in real estate and household debt.

Recorded Webinar | October 2017 | Craig Alexander | The Conference Board of Canada

450,000 Immigrants Per Year: Assessing the Economic Impact of Higher Immigration Levels in Canada

The future of Canada’s immigration levels have featured prominently in conversations over the past year. Groups such as the Federal Advisory Council on Economic Growth have called for a sharp rise in immigration to enhance the country’s prosperity. Following the Advisory Council’s recommendation for Canada to increase immigration to 450,000 people per year by 2021, the federal government announced in October 2016 that Canada would admit at least 300,000 immigrants per year moving forward, and it is currently pursuing a mandate of increasing levels sustainably in light of the country’s aging population and low birth rate. Canadians will get a better sense of the federal government’s direction once Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen announces next year’s levels by November 1 st, 2017.

The Conference Board of Canada is weighing in on the conversation. Its fall 2017 report evaluates several immigration scenarios and the projected impacts on the economy up to 2040. Join this webinar as we walk you through the findings to provide you with a better understanding of the role of immigration in Canada’s economic future.

Recorded Webinar | October 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

The NAFTA Disconnect: Actual Costs and Benefits Versus Popular Perceptions

There are many ways to evaluate trade agreements. Perhaps the best place to start is by evaluating how well an agreement achieved its stated goals. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) appears to have accomplished its primary objectives, since trade and investment have significantly increased among the three NAFTA countries.

As NAFTA renegotiations get underway among the three partner countries, understanding the U.S.-Mexico relationship in particular is going to be critical for Canadians. In this special webinar, get a perspective on NAFTA from the other border involved in the renegotiation.

Dr. Raymond Robertson of Texas A&M University describes how NAFTA has shaped the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship and how both countries have benefitted from the changes brought on by the agreement.

Although U.S. imports from Mexico increased more than U.S. exports to Mexico, the facts do not support the claim that Mexico has benefitted more from NAFTA than the United States. Recent evidence suggests that earnings in the two countries have grown at about the same rate since NAFTA, and the gap between Mexican and U.S. incomes have not closed.

Furthermore, Mexican and U.S. workers are complements and not competitors for jobs. When employment expands in the United States, it also expands in Mexico, and vice-versa. Moreover, much of the value of the U.S. imports from Mexico includes parts produced in the United States that are exported to Mexico for assembly and then re-exported to the United States.

Recorded Webinar | October 2017 | The Conference Board of Canada

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