Canadian Outlook Bulletin: Winter 2018
The Conference Board of Canada
December 20, 2017
This briefing provides highlights of our quarterly Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
- As 2017 comes to a close, the Canadian economy is on track to post its fastest pace of growth since 2011.
- Going forward, capacity constraints will slow growth to a more sustainable pace. After growing by 3.0 per cent in 2017, we expect GDP to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 and to then average just 1.8 per cent over the following three years.
- Following strong employment gains in 2017, employment growth is set to weaken in 2018, held back by the aging of the population and the elimination of most of the slack in labour markets.
- Consumer spending is expected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2018, supported by a strong labour market, high consumer confidence, and rising wages.
- We expect the Bank of Canada to remain on the sidelines until April before hiking rates three times over the rest of 2018.