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Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2009

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, July 29, 2009
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • Growth in Canada is forecast to resume over the second half of 2009. Still, real GDP will contract by 1.9 per cent this year before recovering with growth of 2.7 per cent in 2010.
  • Newfoundland and Labrador will have to contend with a mature offshore oil industry; a steep real GDP decline is forecast this year, and no recovery is expected in 2010.
  • The Maritime provinces, along with Manitoba, will post positive real GDP growth this year. All four provinces have managed to avoid the boom–bust cycle.
  • In Quebec, the global recession has hurt trade, but the domestic economy is holding up. After a 0.9 per cent drop in 2009, the province will turn around with real GDP growth of 1.8 per cent in 2010.
  • While the situation in Ontario remains challenging, there are signs that a bottom is forming in the automobile sector. Ontario’s economy is forecast to rebound next year.
  • The outlook for Saskatchewan has been downgraded significantly. An unfavourable outlook for potash and agriculture will pull down economic growth this year.
  • The swift correction in the housing markets in Alberta and British Columbia is gradually fading. Both provinces will see real GDP growth above 3 per cent in 2010.