Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 228 pages, April 6, 2018
Report
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy is still performing well, but growth has been easing.
  • Despite turbulence and uncertainty on the trade and investment fronts, no hard landing is expected for the Canadian economy.
  • A host of projects, mainly in the energy sector, will power B.C.’s economy this year to 3.1 per cent growth—the best of any province.
  • Quebec and Ontario will see economic growth ease from close to or above 3 per cent last year to around 2 per cent this year and next.
  • The recovery is on solid ground in Alberta, where job creation is expected to accelerate and lower the unemployment rate to close to 6 per cent by the end of this year.
  • Population aging is hurting the Maritimes. Economic growth will be relatively weak in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick over the near term.
  • New oil production from Hebron will help return Newfoundland and Labrador to real economic growth of 2.6 per cent in 2018 and 3.6 per cent in 2019.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Résumé

Newfoundland and Labrador—Large-Scale Investments Bearing Fruit for the Province

  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Government
  • Trade

Prince Edward Island—Smooth Sailing Ahead for Prince Edward Island

  • Strong Population Growth Brings Demand for Construction and Real Estate Sectors
  • Cruise Landings Indicate Another Record-Breaking Tourism Season
  • Exports and Manufacturing Set to Continue to Perform Well
  • With Balance Approaching, Government Can Loosen Purse Strings

Nova Scotia—Record-Level Immigration Temporarily Reviving Labour Markets

  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors Outlook

New Brunswick—Economy on Firmer Ground

  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlooks
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors

Quebec—Tighter Labour Markets Put Pressure on Wages

  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Housing
  • Government
  • Exports

Québec—Le resserrement du marché du travail tire les salaires vers le haut

  • Consommation
  • Investissement
  • Logement
  • Gouvernement
  • Exportations

Ontario—Tempered Expectations as Housing Market Cools

  • Higher Minimum Wage and Recruiting Challenges Abet Wage Growth
  • Fall in Residential Investment Pinches Growth in 2018
  • Precarious Government Finances Require Spending Restraint
  • Services-Producing Sectors Support Export Growth

Manitoba—The Benefit of a Diverse Economy

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade
  • Key Industries

Saskatchewan—Poised for Recovery but Road Remains Perilous

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade
  • Key Industries

Alberta—Economy Set to Surpass Pre-Recession Level

  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Government
  • Trade and Energy

British Columbia—Growth Set to Fall Back Below 3 Per Cent in 2019

  • Unaffordable Housing Keeps Workers at Bay
  • Glimmer of Hope for Natural Gas Developments
  • Government Outlook
  • Higher Lumber Prices Will Support Export Growth

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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